A proper winter storm is on the doorstep, it will arrive with snow and wind over the next few days. Expect a natural cycle on the Feb 3rd crust/facet combo, as well as it being primed for human triggering
New windslabs will start to form with incoming precip and continued strong winds. These slabs will have the potential to step down to deeper persistent layers.
Several crusts are now being buried in our snowpack. The most concerning is the Feb 03 crust which has a sensitive layer of facets above it in many places. Suspect this layer will become more sensitive the additional load.
Numerous natural slab avalanches to size 2 were observed on a field day in Rowe Meadows on Tuesday. Suspect these avalanches are failing on the Feb 03 Crust/Facet combo. Several small wet loose avalanches were observed on steep features below treeline.
Strong to extreme winds have built hard windslabs in the alpine and at treeline. The upper snowpack became moist on all aspects on Thursday and is now re-freezing into crust. Steep solar slopes have several suncrusts at all elevations, from recent spring-like weather. The Feb 3rd crust is down 30-60cm and has a thin layer of weak facets above it. The lower snowpack is a well-settled crust/facet complex to ground. Average snowpack depths are between 100 - 150 cm.
Sat
Cloudy, light snow up to 5cm. Strong to extreme SW winds with an alpine high of -5°C
Sun
Overcast, snow intensifying into the evening, 10-15 cm possible. Most intense precip in the SW corner of the park. Strong to extreme winds and an alpine high of -5°C
Mon
Overcast with light snow up to 10cm. Winds decreasing to light through the day. Temps fall to -20°C in the alpine.
For more info see: Mountain Weather Forecast.
