Northern New Mexico

Dangerous avalanche are developing today on slopes near and above treeline, most prominently on Northerly and East-facing terrain.  New snowfall and strong gusty winds will continue to build and stiffen the slabs that sit on top of widespread layers of facets and depth hoar, overstressing these weak layers.  Pay close attention to the obvious signs of this instability like cracking and audible collapses, and be aware that remote triggering from a distance away is a possibility with this snowpack setup.  Additionally, look out for smaller wind slabs on the leeward side of ridgelines and other wind-prone terrain features.  You can always stick to lower angle, "more sheltered" terrain at lower elevations to reduce your exposure to these growing avalance problems.

Travel in the mountains today will be challenging in its own right with blowing snow, low visibility, and wind chills all factoring in.

Yesterday's big blizzard event didn't exactly play out as expected.  Snowfall was limited to about a half inch of graupel and rimed particles, but the winds did end up being pretty extreme all day.  Today already looks more promising than that for snowfall as we're at over an inch and counting this morning.  The current pulse looks like it'll slow down this morning, but another pulse starts in the afternoon, keeping the snowfall going into tonight.  The Southwest winds will remain strong all day with peak gusts possibly exceeding 60mph, so it'll be more of a blizzard at times today than yesterday, which you'll want to be aware of if you're heading into the mountains.

Avalanche issues continue to intensify today as the new snow and wind transport continues to build out the slabs sitting on top of our incredibly weak snowpack.  Near and above treeline, the snow from Valentines Day has been blown around significantly over the last few days, thickening the slabs on leeward and cross-loaded aspects to over a foot deep.  These slabs will continue to thicken and stiffen today, overwhelming weak near surface facets, facets below a crust, or potentially the depth hoar closer to the ground.  All of this weak snow is at play and easy to impact today with it being close to the surface, and you should be aware of the possibility for remote triggering if you're getting anywhere near avalanche terrain.  Wind slabs will also be forming easily at these higher elevations on leeward terrain, and they could be very reactive with enough loading, and additionally cause step downs into deeper weak layers.

Below treeline, the story is a little bit different because we haven't been finding as cohesive of a slab develop from the Valentines Day snow.  Yesterday's wind event was upsloping and stripping many areas in the woods, but also depositing it on others.  With a bit more new snow today, additional snow in the forecast for the next 48 hours, and ongoing strong winds, expect to see see some of this terrain become more unstable in the coming days.  The shallow snowpacks in these areas are just so thoroughly weak and cohesionless that as soon as the slabs become more cohesive, avalanches will become easy to trigger.

If you're heading into the mountains for any amount of time today, please travel cautiously.  Look actively for the signs and symptoms of instability in the snowpack and give steeper avalanche terrain a wide berth until you know what's going on within those slopes.  Blowing snow and difficult visibility will be issues at times, as will the wind chill if you're getting up high.  I'm excited to see what tonight's snowfall brings, plus we're also looking at a third system moving in on Thursday evening.  If these storms end up being productive, it'll mean increasing avalanche danger, but also better skiing and riding.