Up to 1700 m freezing levels after another forecast 20 - 30 cm should push us past the tipping point for a natural avalanche cycle. Time to back off from avalanche terrain.
Steady snowfall and strong winds are forming new storm slabs across the region's avalanche terrain. Accumulation on the drought layer is approaching the tipping point where a natural cycle is expected.
Rising temperatures will increasingly promote wet loose avalanche activity on Thursday.
Only a few small wind slabs and loose dry avalanches from steep terrain have been observed in the storm so far (some from ski cutting), but new snow is piling up and hazard is on a steep rise.
Successive rounds of snowfall (even a bit of rain) and wind should maintain dangerous avalanche conditions through the forecast period.
Another 20 to 30 cm of new snow should accumulate by Thursday Morning, bringing new snow totals to about 60 - 70 cm, with strong south winds accompanying it all.
The new snow is beginning to reach a critical load above a grab-bag of drought surfaces. Heavy wind effect and supportive crust predominate, but these may be paired with faceted grains or large, weak surface hoar in sheltered areas--a bad combo.
The January 3rd surface hoar is still a layer of note, found 100 to 250 cm deep. It hasn't produced avalanches recently and ought to be locked under the crust in many areas.
Treeline snow depths throughout the region range from 250 to 450 cm.
Wednesday Night
Cloudy with snow showers bringing 20 to 30 cm of new snow. 40 to 50 km/h south ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature -2 °C. Freezing level 800 m.
Thursday
Mostly cloudy with continuing light flurries bringing about 5 cm of snow, increasing again overnight. 30 to 40 km/h south ridgetop wind, easing. Treeline temperature reaching 1 °C as freezing level climbs to 1700 m.
Friday
Cloudy with easing snowfall bringing 25 to 40 cm of new snow, including overnight amounts, with rain below about 1300 m. 60 to 70 km/h southwest ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature 0 °C to 1 °C with freezing level reaching 1400 - 1500 m.
Saturday
A mix of sun and clouds after overnight flurries finish with up to 5 cm of new snow. 30 to 40 km/h southeast ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature -2 °C. Freezing level 1000 m.
More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.
