Convective snow is adding up at treeline with over 50cm of recent snow. Avalanche Danger is rated as Moderate but the snowpack this season is one not to be trusted due to its complex series of crusts and shallow areas. When the snowpack is complex, look for terrain that isn't. Great skiing on the north aspects, but intense solar input is having a strong effect on the solar sides. Best to start early and finish early at this time of year.
With up to 60cm of recent snow in alpine areas keep a keen eye out for wind slabs along ridgelines. Cracking or a "cakey" feel indicate the snowpack is reactive to loads such as a skier.
The Feb crust has been the main bed surface for many avalanches this winter. Slopes and features that have not slid should be treated cautiously or just avoided. Dig and look.
Facets near the base of the snowpack may be triggered from thin areas. Low probability, high consequence avalanches should be in your mind.
A few loose dry avalanches up to size 1.5 have been observed over the past 48hrs from steep unskiable terrain. One naturally triggered size 2.5 slab avalanche was observed in the Rummel Lake area that is likely 24 to 48hrs old. This slide failed on a North aspect in the Alpine.
An additional 10cm of new snow in the past 24 hours, brings the recent HST totals up to 60cm. This new snow is overlying a variety of surfaces from temperature crusts on solar aspects to dry snow on polar aspects. Isolated wind slabs are found in the Alpine, especially in lee and cross-loaded features. Moist snow was found on solar aspects by late morning, which will form a new thin surface crust overnight. While we have seen the February crust become less reactive, it's still a concern and worth a dig to see what it's doing. Thin weak areas have also been the cause of at least one recent size 3.0 skier accidental avalanche that triggered the deep persistent slab layers near ground. Forecasters have low confidence in any features that have not slid yet this season. Moderate danger means Human triggered avalanches are possible.
When the sun comes out and temperatures warm up, expect avalanche danger to increase, especially on solar aspects in thin steep rocky terrain. Start early and be done early before the heat arrives. Plan your tour to avoid solar aspects later in the day and think about slopes in the sun first thing in the morning when you are in the cool valley floor.
Light flurries Saturday night may drop a couple of cm's of snow. Sunday should bring a mix of sun and cloud with temperatures in the Alpine reaching -2C. Winds will be mostly light from the North.
Be aware that when the sun comes out it packs a punch! Stability will quickly deteriorate on solar aspects when the sun is shining. These effects will me most apparent in thin rocky terrain so be sure to think about aspect at this time of year as well as time of day.
More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.
