Bulletin d’avalanche

Northern New Mexico

Taos Avalanche Center
Voir sur la carte

Danger d’avalanche

Thu
Alpin
2 · Modéré
Limite forestière
2 · Modéré
Sous la limite
1 · Faible
Open full map
Périmé — ce bulletin a expiré 2 years ago. Vous consultez des conditions passées, pas le bulletin en cours.

Points saillants

Expect avalanche conditions to ramp up this afternoon into the evening as heavy snowfall and wind will build slabs on top of very weak faceted/depth hoar snow. These persistent weak layers will struggle to handle new loading. As snow stacks up, it's likely you'll experience shooting cracks and loud audible collapses. These are indications you've found this persistent slab avalanche problem and new snow is stiffening into a slab. Heed these warning signs and avoid being on or connected to slopes over 30 degrees. In steep northerly terrain that doesn't have a slab, new snow will make it easier to trigger dry loose snow avalanches in the cohesion-less snow below. 

Expect changing avalanche conditions this afternoon into the evening as intense snowfall picks up. If the forecast verifies, and we pick up close to a foot of snow by tomorrow morning we could see natural avalanche activity in the overnight hours.  

Problèmes avalancheux

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpin
    • Limite forestière
    • Sous la limite forestière
    Probabilité
    Possible
    Taille
    1–2

    Fragile facets and depth hoar are widespread in our snowpack from the Nov thru Jan dry period. These persistent weak layers will face their first test of the year with storm totals expected to reach over foot. Pay attention to obvious signs of instability like shooting cracks and loud audible whumpfs as these are indications you've found a slab/weak layer combination. If you notice snow stiffening under foot or these bulls-eye clues of unstable snow, seek terrain under 30 degrees, avoiding being on or connected to slopes above you. The current set-up we have, lends itself to remotely triggering of avalanches. This could mean you're able to trigger an avalanche breaking well above you.  

    Avalanches will most likely fail at the upper parts of the faceted snow but could step down, or gouge into depth hoar near the ground, taking with it most of the seasons' snowpack. Any avalanche triggered would lead to a nasty ride and could be big enough to injure or bury you.  

    A shallow weak faceted snowpack will struggle to handle new snow. Persistent slab avalanches are likely to initially fail on the upper portions of the weak and could step down or gouge into the weak snow below.

    (1/28/2025) Photo: Charlie Harrison

Avalanche Discussion

It's been a long wait, but we finally have a "significant" storm heading our way. The National Weather Service has us under a Winter Storm Warning, with upwards of a foot of snow expected to fall by the time the storm makes its exit Thursday afternoon. Although not the biggest of storms, after the season we've had it sure will feel like a nice return to winter. It's been low tide out there, but with snow in the forecast it's time to get the head back thinking about avalanches. Prefrontal SE winds are currently in the 15 - 25 mph range with gusts in the 30's. The latest model runs are showing snow starting by mid-day with snow quickly intensifying this afternoon through the evening. The avalanche danger will start off at LOW this morning but will rise this afternoon and evening as snow starts to stack up. We've bumped the danger to Moderate today for the afternoon and early evening timeframe, but it could quickly go to Considerable in the overnight hours if we see the higher end of the heavy snowfall that is forecasted.     

If you haven't been checking out the forecasts, it's pretty easy to catch up. Two big storms at the end of October and early November have brought most of our snow so far this season. Since November 8th we've only picked up 13 inches of low-density snow. This very long, extended dry period in our shallow snowpack has promoted advanced faceting and depth hoar. It's been a lot of depth hoar skiing this year and hoping you don't hit any rocks or logs on the ground. A 2 to 3 foot snowpack can be found above 10,500' on mainly Northerly through East aspects, with typical West facing slopes along the Fraiser to Wheeler ridgeline holding snow as well. Southerly aspects have melted back to bare ground. These persistent weak layers are incredibly weak, widespread and haven't faced a significant snow event this year.   

 

The one big ingredient our snowpack is missing right now is slabs. Yesterday in steep northerly terrain, Charlie and I were easily getting facet/depth hoar sluffs gouging into the weak cohesion-less snow near the ground. This extremely weak snow will struggle to handle the close to 1" of SWE we're forecasted to get with this storm. The big question will be how reactive the storm snow is, as this slab will be driving our persistent slab problem. Most of our extended column tests are not producing propagating results right now, but that's a function of most slopes not having a slab.  A wind event several days ago drifted snow into thin slabs on the surface, and we were getting easy results in ECT's and shooting cracks where we found this slab. Indications are that these weak layers won't be able to hold much weight, which may mean we'll see some natural avalanche activity earlier in the storm.    

It's been a tough season, and it'll be enticing to want to go ski and ride this fresh powder. But the current snowpack we have is one of the weakest snowpacks I've ever seen. It's not a snowpack to trust, especially with facets and depth hoar facing the first significant test of the season. Be prepared to change your mindset as the storm progresses as avalanche danger will quickly rise if we do see the expected snowfall that is forecasted.

Régions couvertes