Bulletin d’avalanche

Northern New Mexico

Taos Avalanche Center
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Danger d’avalanche

Sun
Alpin
2 · Modéré
Limite forestière
2 · Modéré
Sous la limite
2 · Modéré
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Périmé — ce bulletin a expiré 4 years ago. Vous consultez des conditions passées, pas le bulletin en cours.

Points saillants

It's possible to trigger a persistent slab avalanche on faceted weak layers near the ground at all elevations.  Avoid slopes where you find a poor snowpack structure of cohesive slabs over faceted weak layers below.  Obvious signs of instability like shooting cracks and loud collapses may not be present in travels and give you a false sense of safety.  You are more likely to impact deeper buried weak layers where the overlying slab is thinner. These likely trigger points are typically found on the margins of the slabs, near trees, and rock outcrops. If you were to trigger an avalanche, there's a chance that it could be large and take with it most of the season's snowpack.

Problèmes avalancheux

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpin
    • Limite forestière
    • Sous la limite forestière
    Probabilité
    Possible
    Taille
    1–2

    Deeper down in the snowpack, closer to the ground is where you'll find facets and depth hoar.  These persistent weak layers formed during November and early December dry periods can be found on most slopes and are buried under 1 to 1.5 meters of snow from storms earlier in January.  In pits, these weak layers are typically found under a rain crust, and in deeper snowpacks have been showing signs of strengthening and rounding.  On most slopes, these weak layers will be difficult or stubborn to trigger, but not impossible, as we push further away from the last loading event. 

    Avoid areas on the slope where the slab is thinner, near rock outcrops and on the margins of the slab. It may not be the first person on the slope to get it to release, and tracks on a slope are not an indication that it is safe. Taking the time to dig a quick pit in the terrain you plan to play on, to see if this poor snowpack structure of strong over weak is present is a great way to assess if this persistent slab problem exists.  You can also avoid this problem, by sticking to lower-angle slopes without steep slopes above.  

Avalanche Discussion

It's forecasted to be another pleasant spring-like day for the beginning of February with temperatures climbing into the 30's under mostly sunny skies. Moderate westerly winds will help cool things a little, but we may see small wet loose snow avalanches or roller balls, especially in steep terrain, near rock bands at lower elevations and solar aspects.  Windy conditions will develop on Sunday ahead of the next system that pushes into the area on Monday.  Unfortunately, this system isn't looking all that promising with a couple of inches of snow, colder temperatures, and strong winds.   

It's now been close to two weeks since our last snowfall and our persistent weak layers near the ground have been showing some signs of strengthening.  Slopes that have a deeper snowpack (over 1.5m) have been settling helping to compress these weak layers as well as driving a weaker temperature gradient throughout the snowpack where we are seeing these weak layers sinter or bond together.  On slopes where the snowpack isn't as deep, this rounding process has been slower, and basal facets and depth hoar continues to remain weak.  In most pits, I'm finding these weak layers underneath a rain crust from early December.  At upper elevations, strong winds last week have stripped and scoured some slopes and loaded others into stiffer hard slabs and breakable crusts. It's a mixed bag out there, with lots of slope-to-slope variabilities, so taking the time to dig a quick pit or using your probe pole to identify layers of concern can help you make a better-informed decision before hopping on a slope. Although the likelihood of triggering a persistent slab avalanche is low, the consequences still remain quite high if you did trigger one, as it could take with it most of the season's snowpack and produce a large avalanche.  

With the potential of a more active weather pattern next week, the focus will start to shift to the surface. The upper portions of the snowpack have seen lots of changes over the last week and will continue through the weekend.  Sun crusts have been forming on solar aspects from our powerful sun here in the desert southwest. Other slopes have seen near-surface faceting, which is making for decent "recycled powder" riding but will become weak layers of concern once we get more snow and introduce a slab on top. 

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