Northern New Mexico

Dangerous avalanche conditions continue to develop at all elevations today with strong W/SW winds drifting the recent storm snow into stiffer and more reactive slabs. You're most likely to find wind slabs on leeward aspects below ridgelines near and above treeline today, but you'll also find them in cross-loaded gullies and other wind-loaded features. Wet loose avalanches are another concern today, particularly on wind-sheltered solar aspects. Deeper down in our snowpack, faceted crusts and near surface facets that were present in the upper meter of snowpack prior to last weekend's storm are now buried 3+ feet below the surface. You're unlikely to directly impact these weak layers in your travels today, but if you triggered a smaller avalanche nearer to the surface, it could easily step down to one of these deeper persistent weak layers, leading to a very large and destructive persistent slab avalanche.  

Today will bring springy temperatures and high winds to the Northern Sangres as an upper level shortwave trough crosses the Central Rockies. This last storm produced a lot of snowfall over a short amount of time (nearly 4 feet with 4.5" SWE), and we are seeing new avalanche problems develop as this snow gets transported around and subjected to our intense March sunshine. Travel conditions have been difficult so far with so much snow to trudge through, but the snow is settling quickly so travel conditions will start to improve over the weekend. If you're considering getting out there and checking out the riding, you'll need to pay close attention to the snow and utilize cautious route planning. There are multiple avalanche problems on the table right now.

Your number one concern today will absolutely need to be the formation of wind slabs in the alpine. The Southwest winds picked up last night and were gusting over 50mph on Kachina Peak and Highline Ridge. The winds will shift to the West today but continue to be strong, transporting all of the new snow into stiff, reactive slabs on leeward terrain features. Expect to find freshly formed wind slabs on leeward and cross-loaded aspects today (NW-E-SE), and also be cognizant of canyon effects if you're touring in from the West: gully features and other terrain pockets are likely to harbor or develop sensitive wind drifts today. My best advice to you is to stay away from obvious wind drifts on steeper slopes and turn back at your first sign of stiffening snow underfoot or cracking/collapsing. Wind slab avalanches could be large and run for long distances, especially in big terrain near and above treeline. They could also step down into one of our persistent weak layers, which could lead to a very large, potentially catastrophic avalanche. Apply cautious decision making today and be ready to back off of steep terrain. This will feel more difficult today because steep terrain is also where you'll have the easiest time riding in these deep conditions. Be aware of this potential bias if you head out today.

It's also the time of year where wet snow avalanches are common, especially with so much recent snow near the surface. Expect continued wet cycles today, even with the high winds at play. You're most likely to encounter wet, destabilizing snow at lower elevations where the temperatures are highest, but it's also possible to find it on solar aspects that aren't getting hammered by the winds. As always, look for signs that the snow surface is taking in heat: roller balls, pinwheels, or wet, sticky snow, and be aware that even a small wet loose avalanche is likely to entrain a lot more snow today as it moves downslope.

There is less certainty when it comes to our persistent slab problem. Faceted crusts and buried near surface facets from our late February and early March dry periods remained in the top meter of the snowpack before this latest round of snow. This storm was the first significant loading event since these layers formed, and avalanche control teams did get a result the other day in uncompacted terrain where a new snow avalanche stepped down into deeper weak layers. Today, you are unlikely to impact these weak layers on your own, but if you triggered a wind slab avalanche or a wet loose avalanche, it could easily step down to these older weak layers as it moves downhill and picks up momentum. Any avalanche of this type today would be large or very large - consider the potentially disastrous consequences if this were to happen before stepping into any consequential terrain today.

If you go for a tour today, start early and end early, or head towards shadier aspects. Be ready to work hard breaking trail and don't forget to bring glob stopper or warm base wax, as once you transition from dry to wet snow this will create perfect globbing conditions. My advice in the current snowpack is to stick with wind and sun sheltered terrain where you can still find some fresh fluff. The softest places to ride are largely also going to be the safest places to ride today. Keep your head in the snow as it changes underfoot and be careful!