Northern New Mexico

At upper elevations is where you'll find freshly formed wind slabs from recent snow and strong westerly winds.  These newly formed slabs, will be relatively shallow, but avoid slopes where you find more than 6 inches of new snow that may appear pillowed or lens-shaped. A smaller wind slab avalanche has the possibility of stepping down into weak layers creating a larger avalanche.  Deeper down in the snowpack, weak layers near the ground and in the middle of the snowpack continue to linger.  Although becoming harder to trigger, if you were to trigger an avalanche on one of the deeper weak layers it could produce a very large avalanche that could have catastrophic consequences.  Sticking to wind-sheltered terrain under 35 degrees without steep slopes overhead will provide better and safer riding conditions. 

This will be the last weekend of regular avalanche forecasting for the season.  

This morning into the early afternoon is shaping up to be the nicest day out of the next several as we see a brief reprieve from the strong winds.  Windy weather will be the theme over the next week, as strong winds will be sticking with us through much of next week.  Right now, there is only slight chances of snow next week as it looks like the next storm system on Tuesday will be tracking to our north. It'll feel very much like spring with warming temperatures, sunny skies, and strong westerly winds through Monday.

A quick-hitting system brought 2 to 4 inches of low-density snow Thursday night into Friday which was combined with strong westerly winds and easily drifted the new snow at upper elevations onto the leeward sides of ridgelines and cross-loaded terrain features. Easterly aspects will most likely have seen the greatest amount of loading below ridgelines. These wind slabs are relatively shallow but could knock you off your feet or take you for a ride in consequential terrain.     

With warming temperatures and our intense sun this time of year we could see some small loose wet snow avalanches on solar aspects, especially at lower elevations where winds are not expected to be as strong.  Watch for signs that the snow surface is getting wet or moist like roller balls or pinwheels.  If you notice the snow getting wet, head to a shadier aspect.  These avalanches would be small but could knock you off your feet which could have serious consequences in steep complex terrain.

Over the last several days, lower elevations have felt the impacts of warm temperatures and sunny weather.  Snow from the last couple of weeks has been settling quickly (we've lost 10" of snow in the last 3 days) and the snowpack has become more supportable. Although the avalanche danger is low below treeline, that does not mean that there is no avalanche danger.  You may find isolated slopes at these lower elevations where you could trigger an avalanche.  Open exposed steep slopes on northerly aspects will be most suspect. 

The persistent slab avalanche problem is a little more complex as weak layers near the ground continue to remain a concern, especially near treeline terrain where the snowpack prior to last week's big storm was still relatively shallow.  Northerly and easterly slopes will be the most suspect, as they have seen the most amount of loading. Higher up in the snowpack, you may find, weak faceted layers beneath cohesive slabs around harder slabs and crusts. We haven't found these layers to be widespread, like the depth hoar near the ground, but could be present on the slopes you're traveling on. There could be several people on a slope, and not get any feedback like loud audible collapses, but all it may take is hitting a "sweet spot" and it could potentially release a big avalanche.    

What gives me some pause, is that if you were to trigger an avalanche on one of these weak layers, it could produce a very large avalanche that may not be survivable.  As we push further away from the last significant loading event the likelihood of triggering a persistent slab avalanche is lower, but the consequences remain quite high if you did.  It's a snowpack that is still hard to fully trust, even though it's now April.  It's still very much a winter snowpack at upper elevations, as we haven't seen sustained warm temperatures during the day, which brings the freeze/thaw cycle we typically see in the spring.   Lower-angle wind-sheltered terrain without steep slopes above you will provide safer and better riding options.