Limited observations are keeping forecast confidence low. Steady winds are redistributing loose snow and building wind slabs.
Steady southwest winds are redistributing loose surface snow and building new wind slabs on leeward slopes, particularly near ridgetop.
Weak snow at the bottom of the snowpack hasn't gone away. Evidence of deep persistent slab avalanches has been focused in the Sparwood-Elkford area over the past month. Human triggering is most likely around steep, rocky terrain features or anywhere the snowpack is thin and weak. A failing cornice could initiate a deep persistent slab when it impacts the slope below.
Thursday night: Increasing cloud coverage. Alpine low temperature -9 C. Moderate west winds.
Friday: Cloudy with isolated flurries, up to 5 cm. Alpine high temperature -3 C. Moderate to strong southwest winds.
Saturday: Cloudy with scattered flurries, up to 5 cm. Alpine high temperature -5 C. Moderate gusting to strong southwest winds.
Sunday: Cloudy with scattered flurries, 5-10 cm. Alpine high temperature -1 C. Moderate gusting to strong southwest winds.
No new avalanches were reported from Tuesday's storm, but observations have been minimal. Recent new snow is expected to remain reactive over the near term, especially on steeper south facing slopes and in areas where wind loading has occurred or will occur.
About 15-25 cm of new snow accumulated during Tuesday's storm. Sun has encouraged settlement and produced moist slopes on steep solar aspects at lower elevations. Increasing southwest winds are redistributing loose surface snow.
The recent new snow sits above a melt-freeze crust on sun-exposed slopes and on previously wind-affected snow in other areas, so new slabs may take some time to bond to these surfaces. A layer of faceted grains overly a melt-freeze crust from early February. This layer currently sits 40 to 80 cm below the surface.
The base of the snowpack contains basal facets that are most prominent in shallow, rocky start zones.
