Here's another Xmas story...picture a large, grumpy elephant sitting on a child's tea-time table. That table is gonna burst!!
The snowpack is the tea table, the new storm snow is the elephant in the room. Natural and human-triggered avalanches are very likely.
Don't ruin tea-time today. Order a take-away bevy from the local ski hill where they'll tame the elephants as you have a lovely ski in-bounds! :)
Happy Holidays!
There are three persistent weak layers buried in the mid-upper snowpack. All three of these layers are still reacting in the easy/moderate range in snowpack tests around treeline.
Storm slabs formed rapidly on Saturday. These will require several days to settle and stabilize. Avoid avalanche terrain that has not been completely cleaned out by recent avalanche activity.
A large natural avalanche cycle ripped through Rogers Pass Xmas Eve. Numerous avalanches from sz 2 to 3-3.5 were observed from Tupper, Macdonald, and other highway paths.
Artillery control on Xmas Day left deposits on the highway as well, with observations on Mac West Shoulder showing step-down avalanches on the persistent weak layers.
Avalanches have significant potential to increase in size once they gather up the lower elevation facets and persistent weak layers.
Up to 55cm of new snow sits on a generally weak and facetted snowpack.
Prior to this storm the alpine snowpack was particularly thin and variable, with shallow areas facetted and unconsolidated from the snow surface to the ground.
There are several persistent weak layers buried, which are most prevalent at and near treeline. The recently buried Dec 16 surface hoar (up to 10mm) is now down ~50cm. The Dec 5 surface hoar layer is down ~70cm. The Nov. 17th surface hoar/suncrust/facet layer is down ~100cm and is the suspected failure plane for last weeks whumphing, as well as some large avalanches in neighboring areas.
Remember those gross, warm, wet Holiday kisses from distant relatives? The weather gods are in the spirit of giving, and they're set to smack us all over our cheeks Monday!
Monday: 20-25cm of snow, freezing levels (FZL) rising to 1900m, winds gusting 80km/h from the SW, Alp high 0*C
Tues: 10-15cm, 1600m FZL, light ridgetop winds gusting strong, Alp high -1*C
Wed: scattered flurries, 5cm, 1300m FZL, light winds, Alp high -4*C
