Seward and Lost Lake

Problèmes avalancheux

• 

  Persistent Slabs

  N

  NE

  E

  SE

  S

  SW

  W

  NW

  • Alpin
  • Limite forestière
  • Sous la limite forestière

  Probabilité

  Possible

  Taille

  1–2

  Recent Avalanches: On Monday there was a human triggered avalanche on Resurrection Peak outside of Seward. The person was briefly caught and managed to escape the debris which ran almost 4,000’ to the valley bottom. 

  Today’s light snowfall is arriving on an atypical northwest flow, favoring the Front Range, Hatcher Pass, and the western Kenai Mountains. The Seward area is expected to see only 1 to 2" of new snow. Stronger winds will show up again for this northwest flow, averaging 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 40 mph

  The main concern is the added load from this new snow onto persistent weak layers buried in the upper 1 to 2' of the snowpack. Recent human-triggered avalanches show these layers remain sensitive and have the potential to produce large avalanches, especially in wind-loaded terrain and steep slopes. The problem exists on all aspects and is most concerning in the treeline band and above. Areas that received more snow in the past two weeks (such as the Seward Coastal Mountains) have greater depth and higher trigger likelihood.

  To avoid this issue, you can always stick to lower-angle terrain and steer clear of terrain traps. Red flags like collapsing (whumphing) or shooting cracks are strong signals that conditions are dangerous. You can dig snowpits to assess the buried weak layers, but it can be tricky to find a representative location, and test results are often unreliable with persistent weak layers. On a stormy day like today, conservative route-finding and good group communication remain essential.

  Wind Slabs up to 6 to 12" deep may form in isolated pockets within the new snow and could produce small avalanches. However, with the modest new snow amounts expected, these are not too concerning on their own. The bigger issue is the potential for wind loading to locally increase the load on the underlying persistent weak layers.

  

• 

  Loose Wet

  N

  NE

  E

  SE

  S

  SW

  W

  NW

  • Alpin
  • Limite forestière
  • Sous la limite forestière

  Probabilité

  Likely

  Taille

  1–2

  Cloudy skies overnight likely prevented a solid refreeze of the wet surface snow at lower elevations and on solar aspects. Combined with the chance of rain rising to 500', larger wet loose avalanches may become more likely today, especially at lower elevations. These often start small but can quickly gain momentum and volume, becoming surprisingly destructive as they run to the bottom of paths.

  If you are sinking into wet snow up to your ankle or deeper, it is a clear sign to avoid steep terrain. Wet loose avalanches can entrain significant snow and run farther than expected.

  Wet Slab Avalanches are also becoming more likely as meltwater moves deeper into the snowpack. In areas receiving rain today or where the snow feels saturated, there is potential for larger wet slabs to release on old weak layers. These avalanches can be very large and highly destructive — the best strategy is to avoid avalanche terrain entirely during periods of strong melt or rain-on-snow.