The avalanche hazard is HIGH above 1500' and Considerable below. Dangerous avalanche conditions exist. Human triggered avalanches are very likely and Natural avalanches are likely and could run into flat terrain in defined avalanche paths. Travel in avalanche terrain is not reccomended.
Significant snowfall is expected today above 2000', along with strong southerly winds this morning, which will add weight to an already unstable snowpack. Temperatures are on the rise as well with heavy rain expected below 2000'.
Dangerous avalanche conditions exist, Travel in avalanche terrain is not reccommended above 2000'.
(1/10/2025) Photo: Gareth Brown
The freezing line is once again on the rise. Rain on snow is expected up to 2000', but the potential is there for the rain line to go even higher. At the elevations that are close to the freezing mark rain will be falling on dry snow. In these areas natural wet loose activity is expected to be active in steep terrain as dry snow transitions to wet. At lower elevations the snowpack is already saturated with water so natural activity may take longer to begin, but is still expected later in the day as 1- 1.5" of rain is expected at low elevations.
If you decide to go play in the rain today pay attention to the terrain that is above you in addition to the terrain you are on. The larger the slope is the greater potential size of wet loose activity. Terrain traps such as river canyons and gullies greatly increase the potential consequences of human triggered or natural wet loose activity as debris can stack up deeply.
(1/10/2025)
Pinwheels like those shown are a clear visual indicator that wet loose activity is possible. These often show up as dry snow initially transitions to moist.
Photo: Gareth Brown
The persistent weak layers listed below are at critical stress levels. Large natural avalanches are likely to occur this weekend. Travel in avalanche terrain is not recommended.
Multiple potential weak layers exist in the mid snowpack. These weak layers are being put under significant stress by heavy snowfall over the last week. These layers are of most concern in the mid elevation band, but some may exist at upper elevations as well in isolated areas.
First and most concerning is the 12/5-10 rain crust sandwich. This layer consists of 2 rain crusts that are separated by about 4 inches with faceted snow in between. The upper rain crust has lost most of its strength and propagation in stability tests has been observed multiple times this week failing between the crusts. This layer exists below 3500' and is on average nearly 3 feet deep in the snowpack.
Second is a layer of surface hoar that was recently buried on 1/4. Despite rain on snow, this layer was insulated by dry snow that fell at the beginning of the storm, and has been found intact and reactive in stability tests as recently as 1/8. The distribution of this layer is less continuous than the rain crust sandwich as an uptick in north wind prior to the storm destroyed this layer in many locations above brush line. This layer continues to exist below brush line and in isolated wind-protected alpine areas.
Digging snowpits is the best way to identify persistent weak layers, and ECT and PST tests are the best way to evaluate their sensitivity.
Faceting melt form between the 12/5+12/10 rain crust at 2300' Girls/ ECTP11 down 80 cms
Photo: Gareth Brown
Observed Avalanche Activity last 72 hours:
Natural D2+ D3 avalanche debris has been observed on Snowslide Gulch, South Three Pigs and Mt Tiekel. There is likely more activity, however, cloud cover has prevented natural activity observation.
Forecast Discussion:
Today is the eighth day in a row of measurable precipitation. Valdez has received 5.96 " of water, most of this being rain. Thompson Pass storm totals are estimated at 64" at DOT camp.
An additional 4-5" of water is expected in the next 48 hours, with the majority expected on Sunday. This could translate to 3-4+ feet of additional snow above the rain line.
The snowpack is undergoing a major change and is under a significant amount of stress. Travel in avalanche terrain is not reccomended.
Additional Information:
Continue to avoid Glide cracks in the area where they exist from Nick's Buttress through Cracked Ice at mid elevation. Some of these are being filled in by snow and no recent activity has been noted
If you travel in the Continental zone today, exercise extra caution as weaker snow structure has been observed in this snow climate zone.
If you get out in the mountains today consider leaving an observation to help increase the understanding of current snowpack stability.
A weather and snowpack season history is available by clicking on the Weather History tab that is located above the bottom line statement once you have entered the full forecast.
Season Snowfall Data
Location 24 hour Snowfall Inches- 1/10 24 hour Snow Water Equivalent Inches Height of Snow January Snowfall Season Total Snowfall Valdez 0 N/O 19 10 45 Thompson Pass 6-8 N/O N/O 70 N/O Nicks wind affected N/O 73 33 N/O 46 Mile 0 .20 20 9 N/O
