AM Update: Snowfall and wind have been much lighter than forecast. Pay attention to any changes in weather conditions and be ready to re-evaluate terrain choices.
There's a 25 to 40 cm thick blanket of snow, with more on the way. It's all available for the wind to move and build wind slabs. Watch for them on lee slopes behind ridges or in cross-loaded terrain behind rib or gully features. The best riding will be in the trees with some wind protection.
Whumpfing from thin snowpack areas in Fraser Chutes confirms weakness near the ground is real. The risk I picture is whumpfing from a thin rocky area and triggering a slope above you where the snowpack is 150 cm or more (but the weak layer is still way down near the ground).
Approaching storm should peak overnight but continue through much of Friday.
Thursday Overnight: South winds cranking up into the 60 to 110 km/hr range.
Friday: Strong to extreme south winds gradually lessening to moderate (approx 40 km/hr). Expect 10 to 20 cm of total storm snow. Temperatures around -10 C.
Saturday: Broken or overcast sky, light north east wind, a few flurries, and cooling temperatures nudging towards -20's C.
Sunday: Similar to Saturday only a few degrees cooler. Touching -25 C is possible.
Our AvCan field team reported whumpfs and shooting cracks up to 10 m from thin snowpack areas in the Fraser Chutes on Wednesday. No new avalanches observed today (Thursday).
Here's a picture of my mental map of the region's snowpack.
