Excellent dry snow can still be found on North to Northeast aspects. The Danger Level on Tuesday will depend greatly on sky conditions (sunny with lots of solar input, or cloudy) and the quality of the overnight freeze. Freezing levels are excepted to be near 2600m, so the strategy of an early start and early finish is likely a good one. Time to start employing a Spring ski touring mindset.
With up to 65cm of recent snow in alpine areas and recent increase in wind values, there is a lot of snow to move around and build new wind slabs. Keep an eye out for drum like and cakey feeling snow when transitioning into wind affected terrain. One naturally triggered slide occurred with this problem on Monday (see Avalanche Summary for details).
The Feb crust has been the main bed surface for many avalanches this winter. Slopes and features that have not slid should be treated cautiously or just avoided. Dig and look.
Facets near the base of the snowpack may be triggered from thin areas. Solar slopes could see full depth avalanches when they heat up with daytime warming. Low probability, high consequence avalanches should be in your mind.
Isolated loose dry from extreme Alpine terrain up to size 1.5, likely triggered by solar input. One size 2.5 naturally triggered wind slab occurred within the last 24hrs on a steep N/NE aspect in the Alpine. The debris from this slide ran well below treeline into previously skied terrain.
Previous storm snow totals of up to 60cm are now settling due to mild temps and intense solar radiation. Crusts are found on all solar aspects, which are then melting through the day. True north aspects remain dry to valley floor. Isolated wind slabs are found in the Alpine, especially in lee and cross-loaded features. The March 20 crust down 40 to 60cm is giving resistant shears. While we have seen the February crust become less reactive, it's still a concern and worth a dig to see what it's doing. Thin weak areas have also been the cause of at least one recent size 3.0 skier accidental avalanche that triggered the deep persistent slab layers near ground.
Forecasters have low confidence in any features that have not slid yet this season. Moderate danger means Human triggered avalanches are possible.
When the sun comes out and temperatures warm up, expect avalanche danger to increase, especially on solar aspects in thin steep rocky terrain. Start early and be done early before the heat arrives. Plan your tour to avoid solar aspects later in the day and think about slopes in the sun first thing in the morning when you are in the cool valley floor.
Tuesday will be mainly cloudy with temps climbing to +2C by midday and freezing levels near 2600m. Winds will be strong from the West.
Wednesday will see the start of a precipitation event including rain on Wednesday and snow on Thursday.
More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.
