There will be rising freezing levels and less of an overnight freeze the next few days. Start and end your day early. This will be the first significant warming to test overall stability. Expect natural activity to increase and cornices to fall.
Many cornices are gargantuan and are large triggers on the slopes below. Expect incoming warm temperatures to produce cornice failures. Give them plenty of space.
A persistent weak layer of facets is down 80–120 cm and may still be triggerable by humans in shallow areas, and by large loads like collapsing cornices or wet loose avalanches. This problem exists on all aspects, but has been most active on solar slopes.
Slopes receiving direct sunlight can quickly warm up, even with cool air temperatures. Fresh snow sitting on top of a crust is likely to sluff.
Saturday's Icefield team noted one size 2.5 on Mt Cirrus, West aspect, at 2800m plus one size 3 on Mt Amery, East aspect, cornice triggered. Both are 24 to 48 hours old. No patrol on Friday. Thursday noted a size 2 below the Athabasca - Silverhorn. Wednesday noted a size 2 in the Endless Chain area. Both of these were 48 hour old.
Fifteen centimeters of soft snow is on high North aspects. It is moist most other locations and settling on a variety of melt forms on solar slopes and lower elevations. Below 2300m, melt-freeze crusts are layered within the snowpack. The January 24th facet-crust-surface hoar layer is buried 80–120 cm deep. The lower snowpack is well consolidated where deep and considered weak and faceted where shallow.
Expect Sunday to be sun with clouds, 3 °C, light gusting moderate West winds, and 2600 metres freezing level. Monday and Tuesday will be similar, maybe isolated showers, and slightly warmer temperatures and higher freezing level. There is a good chance of no overnight freeze. Flurries or rain could occur on Wednesday.
