Mt Hood

Expect supportable, firm rain crusts on or near the surface throughout the terrain, making any fall consequential. Light rain and sticky wet snow falling early Friday will not be enough to change the generally safe conditions observed on Thursday. Consider avoiding large avalanche paths due to recent documented risk of very large avalanches that may linger above NWAC forecast terrain; avalanches could run to lower elevations and bury you.

We've gone from high to low danger in 24-48 short hours. A relatively well-consolidated snowpack prior seemed to handle 4-5" of water that fell Monday into Wednesday surprisingly well. Mt. Hood Meadows conducted control into above treeline terrain Thursday morning, but couldn't produce any avalanches, even with explosives. However, multiple large avalanche crowns were observed from Mt. Hood Meadows on 1/13  at 8000 ft and above, reminding us that conditions may remain significantly more dangerous above the NWAC forecast area. One of these, size 2-2.5, had a crown at 9000 ft and ran to 6000 ft or lower. The crown appeared small relative to the size of the debris, suggesting that the storm was ongoing at the time of slab failure. Public observations illustrate a very large avalanche in the Canyon and the potential for very large avalanches to transition into the wet snow at lower elevations.  They also observed glide cracks at these upper elevations proof that free water is running at the base of the snowpack.

Our conclusion is that avalanche conditions should be generally relatively safe, but that safety does not extend above the NWAC forecast area where significant natural avalanche activity was occurring through at least Tuesday night. If you need to cross large avalanche paths exposed to slopes on the upper mountain, human-triggered avalanches on slopes above may still be a serious threat. Consider avoiding these large slide paths entirely to increase your margin of safety. 

At the tail end of the recent atmospheric river event, a strong cold frontal passage winds drifted 2-4" of snow, exposing the stout crust in places with firm wind-affected snow in others. We don't expect that the 0.25" of mostly rain falling Friday morning will impact the surface snow, the crust, or the well-draining snowpack.

Non-avalanche hazards will be significant on Thursday:

• Firm and icy slopes have been reported in other forecast zones. Make sure you can self-arrest on the slopes you travel and consider bringing tools if you travel on steeper slopes.
• Creeks may be blown out, difficult to cross, and have high and fast-moving running water.
• Trailheads may be difficult to access due to downed trees, debris, and potentially flooding.

During the ongoing Covid-19 pandemic, continue to follow the latest guidance from local, state, and federal health officials. Avoid unnecessary risks that could impact first responders and stress medical resources.  Wear a mask when appropriate, practice social distancing, and consider recreating closer to home.