Incoming snow will arrive with cool-ish temps. Expect sluffing and loose/dry avalanches to increase in frequency and size later on Thursday.
The snowpack is at record low levels with many hazards above or just below the surface. Allow extra time for your descent and exit.
Be on the watch for loose surface snow sluffing in steep, confined gullies. Steep features will likely shed this new snow, especially where it sits on a suncrust.
No new avalanches were observed the last 3 days. The weekend saw warm temps trigger a loose, wet avalanche cycle. One of these avalanches stepped down to the Dec 1st surface hoar layer, triggering a large slab avalanche. This is indicative that a large load, or a smaller load in a shallow, faceted zone, can step down to the deep, persistent weak layers in the snowpack.
~5cm of recent snow overlies variable old surfaces: sun crust on solar aspects; windslab in the alpine and exposed tree-line locations. Sheltered N aspects hold soft snow.
Below 2100m there is a strong rain crust down 40-60cm (from Dec 5th/6th).
The Dec 1 surface hoar, down 60-100cm, has seen isolated deep pockets "pop" out in steeper, alpine terrain.
In shallow areas at upper elevations, the base of the snowpack is faceted and unsupportive.
Flurries later this week will provide a much needed refresh to the surface conditions in Rogers Pass.
Tonight: Isolated flurries, Alp low -6°C, light SW winds,1100m freezing level (fzl).
Thurs: Flurries, 10cm, light/mod SW winds, high -6°C, 1300m fzl.
Fri: Isolated flurries, trace, Alp high -7°C, light/mod SW winds, 1000m fzl.
Sat: Scattered flurries, 5cm, Alp high -8°C, light/mod SW winds.
