Bulletin d’avalanche

Seward and Lost Lake

Chugach National Forest Avalanche Center
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Danger d’avalanche

Fri
Alpin
2 · Modéré
Limite forestière
2 · Modéré
Sous la limite
2 · Modéré
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Points saillants

Another light storm is passing through today bringing light rain and snow above 1,300'. There is still a chance a person could trigger a large avalanche up to 2' deep above 2,500'. Wet avalanches could be a concern, especially if solar facing slopes warm up more than expected. If you find yourself stepping up to your shin in wet snow it means conditions are becoming dangerous. Choose low angle slopes with nothing steep above to avoid all of these problems.

FRIDAY AVALANCHE OUTLOOK: Another weak system is expected on Friday, but precipitation amounts do not look like enough to overload the snowpack. If the crust on solar facing slopes breaks down, wet avalanches will become a concern. If you sink up to your shin in wet snow it means conditions are dangerous. There will still be a small chance a person could trigger an avalanche up to 2' deep on weak snow above 2,500'. We will issue our next avalanche forecast on Saturday.

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SPECIAL ANNOUNCEMENTS:

Forecast Operations: Beginning this week, we will be transitioning to our late season forecasting schedule, issuing forecasts Tuesday, Thursday, Saturday and Sunday. Our last forecast will be Thursday, April 30th followed by our annual "Spring Tips" on May 1st. 

Hiking on trails below avalanche paths this time of year is dangerous and not recommended.  Avalanches may release into valley bottoms, covering up summer hiking trails. This includes the Marathon Jeep Trail, which is a terrain trap for most of the hike. Other trails in this area that can be dangerous right now include the Russian Lakes trail to the Barber Cabin, Crescent Lake, Ptarmigan Lake, and Victor Creek Trail. 

 

Problèmes avalancheux

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpin
    • Limite forestière
    • Sous la limite forestière
    Probabilité
    Possible
    Taille
    1–2

    Recent Avalanches: Several small slabs were observed on the north side of Lowell Peak following a light precipitation event last weekend. A larger slab to the ground also occurred, mostly likely due to warming, last week on Lowell Peak pictured below. It has been 10 days since there was a human-triggered avalanche on the south side of South Resurrection Peak. The person was briefly caught and managed to escape the debris which ran almost 4,000’ to the valley bottom. 

    If the thick crust on southerly facing slopes remains intact today, the danger will be lower on these particular slopes. The easiest test to see how much melt is occurring is to step off your machine or boards and step into some untracked snow with your boot. If you sink to your shin in wet snow (snow that you can squeeze water out of) conditions are getting dangerous and it's time to choose lower angle slopes with nothing steep above.

    The danger this time of year can be very difficult to predict and depends on many factors including temperature, cloud cover, and precipitation, which can all change quickly. The chances for wet avalanches today will depend on how much the crust breaks down (or doesn't) on solar facing slopes. There isn't enough precipitation forecast to be very concerning with just 1 to 2" of new snow expected in the main forecast area. 

    Cornice Fall: With today's conditions (light snow, moderate wind and cloud cover) we don't expect cornice fall to be a big concern, but this time of year unexpected things can happen so give cornices a wide margin on the ridge and keep an eye on them if you are passing underneath.

    (4/16/2026)

    Snow forecast for today from 4AM to 4AM Friday courtesy of the National Weather Service Anchorage Office

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpin
    • Limite forestière
    • Sous la limite forestière
    Probabilité
    Possible
    Taille
    1–2

    There are a few layers of weak buried within the upper 2' of the snowpack above 2,500'. There was some significant northwest wind that occurred on Tuesday that may have increased the load on this weak layer in some places and today there will be a little bit of new snow and wind. We think it is probably stubborn to trigger, but we can't rule out the possibility right now.

    The way to reduce your chances of getting injured or buried is to choose slopes that fan out at the bottom with no rocks or trees in the path. The most likely trigger spots are close to rocks and it's possible the 3rd, 4th, or 10th person on the slope could trigger the avalanche.

    Wind slab: Southeast ridgetop winds are just high enough to build some small fresh wind slabs. These can be found below ridgelines, on steep rolls, and in cross-loaded gullies. A shooting crack is a red flag that means an avalanche could occur.

    (4/16/2026)

    Snowfall occurring at the new weather station location north of Lost Lake at 3,400'. The camera points northwest looking towards V-Max area.

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