Bulletin d’avalanche

Northern New Mexico

Taos Avalanche Center
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Danger d’avalanche

Wed
Alpin
3 · Marqué
Limite forestière
3 · Marqué
Sous la limite
3 · Marqué
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Points saillants

Recent snow and strong winds will keep the avalanche danger at Considerable as human-triggered avalanches likely and natural avalanches are possible at all elevations. 1 to 3-foot slabs have formed over a weak and faceted snowpack with weak layers struggling to adjust to the recent load. Avoid being on or connected to slopes over 30 degrees, giving runnouts wide berths as it's possible to remotely trigger an avalanche from the flats below.  Loud audible collapses and shooting cracks are warning signs that you've found unstable snow.  Although it's possible to trigger an avalanche in the new snow, expect that an avalanche will most likely fail on deeper buried persistent weak layers creating a larger more destructive avalanche and taking with it most of the season's snowpack. 

Problèmes avalancheux

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpin
    • Limite forestière
    • Sous la limite forestière
    Probabilité
    Likely
    Taille
    1–2

    Snowfall totals over the last 5 days are 18 - 22 inches with about 2" of SWE.  Recent snow and moderate to strong winds have loaded slopes stressing the shallow faceted weak snowpack that existed before this storm. Stiffer more continuous slabs across slopes will allow avalanches to break wider than you might expect across terrain features.  Avoid being on or connected to slopes over 30 degrees, giving avalanche runouts wide berths as we do expect to see natural avalanches with this storm.  These types of conditions lend themselves to remotely triggering avalanches from the flats below.  If you do trigger an avalanche, there is a good possibility that it will fail on deeper buried weak layers creating a large and destructive avalanche.   

    A weak shallow snowpack that fully faceted with depth hoar near the ground existed before Sunday's significant storm. 1 to 3-foot storm slabs now rest on top of this weak faceted snowpack.

    Photo: Andy Bond (1/4/2024)

  • Storm Slabs

    • Alpin
    • Limite forestière
    • Sous la limite forestière
    Probabilité
    Likely
    Taille
    1–2

    Recent snowfall and moderate to strong winds have created dangerous storm slabs on all elevations and aspects.  It's possible that you can trigger a storm slab avalanche within the storm snow or at the old snow interface that was primarily near surface facets.  There's also the possibility that a storm slab avalanche will eventually step down into deeper weak layers near the ground creating a larger more destructive avalanche.  Moderate to strong winds were out of the SW during the storm on Sunday and shifted to the NW on Monday.  Today we'll see the wind shift to the west and could see slopes reloading as our typical fetches were filling back in yesterday,  

    Moderate to strong winds and heavy snowfall on Sunday have built storm slabs at all elevations. Watch for shooting cracks on the surface as this is an indication of unstable snow.

    Photo: Andy Bond (1/4/24)

Avalanche Discussion

Snow totals over the last 5 days are 19 - 23 inches of snow with 2 " of Snow Water Equivalent (SWE), with Sunday's storm bringing 13 -15 inches of snow and 1.5" of SWE. Moderate to strong winds during Sunday's storm continue to remain elevated and are currently in the 20's gusting in the 40's out of the NW. A brief but of dry, cold but windy weather is forecasted over the next couple of days before another storm system impacts our area bringing more wind and a little bit of snowfall.  

Reports filtered in early Monday morning of several natural avalanches in below treeline terrain and I suspect with better visibility today we'll see evidence of a more widespread natural avalanche that most likely occurred Sunday night. Before this active weather pattern, the snowpack remained shallow (2 - 3 feet) and had become weak and faceted throughout.  Newly formed slabs will be the missing ingredient we've had for slab avalanches and these weak layers to become reactive.  The weak faceted snowpack is going to struggle to hold much weight.  Some slopes have reached a tipping point, but others may just need additional loading (from wind) or you as a trigger to get it it to avalanche.  Unlike other storms this year that have come in with little wind, strong winds during the storm and continued wind will help drive more widespread slab formation across slopes and an increased avalanche danger for the next several days. Winds have been shifting from the SW at the start of the storm to the NW and will shift back to the West today, which may lead to some slopes reloading.    

 It's been a slow start to the season as skiing and riding have been less than inspiring.  New snow will improve conditions, but unfortunately, that will also come with increased avalanche danger.  Don't get lured into chasing powder on steeper terrain as it's going to take some time for deeper buried weak layers to adjust to this latest round of loading. Sticking to low-angle wind-sheltered terrain without steep slopes above you will provide safer skiing and riding options over the next several days.   

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