Bulletin d’avalanche

Northern New Mexico

Taos Avalanche Center
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Danger d’avalanche

Fri
Alpin
4 · Fort
Limite forestière
4 · Fort
Sous la limite
4 · Fort
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Points saillants

The avalanche danger is expected to rise to HIGH later today as heavy snowfall and winds continue to build storm slabs and stress persistent weak layers deeper down in the snowpack. Human-triggered and natural avalanches will become likely later today. Avoid being on or below slopes steeper than 30 degrees as avalanches could happen naturally and run long distances well into the flats below.  Avalanches may be able to be triggered remotely from a distance away.  Traveling in and around avalanche terrain is not recommended later today and this evening. 

Problèmes avalancheux

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpin
    • Limite forestière
    • Sous la limite forestière
    Probabilité
    Likely
    Taille
    2–2.5

    Dense heavy wet snow and continued snowfall throughout the day will stress and potentially overwhelm deeper persistent weak layers to their tipping point.  Many slopes prior to this latest round of snow, still had depth hoar and facets near the ground that has been slow to heal or strengthen this season.  Although snowfall amounts so far, aren't overly impressive, this storm has already added a significant amount of water weight.  With an additional 12 - 18 inches of snow forecasted by Friday morning and an additional 1+ inches of SWE expected many slopes will struggle to handle this rapid load.     

  • Storm Slabs

    • Alpin
    • Limite forestière
    • Sous la limite forestière
    Probabilité
    Very Likely
    Taille
    1–2

    Heavy snowfall and wind will continue to build storm slabs throughout the day at all elevations.   This snow is starting off dense and may be bonding well to the old existing surface. With snow levels dropping we should see a right-side-up storm which should help with stability. However, we will see intense periods of snowfall this afternoon (1 - 2" an hour snowfall rates) with winds shifting from the west to east.  Storm slab avalanches will most likely be more reactive at upper elevations where winds have been drifting snow into thicker slabs.  Storm slab avalanches may fail on the old existing surface or within density changes within the new snow. A smaller storm slab, or loose snow avalanche has the potential to step down into deeper weak layers creating a larger and more destructive avalanche.  

     

Avalanche Discussion

The atmospheric river events that have been hitting CA, are finally making their way toward us, bringing heavy wet snow and wind.  Snow/Rain started falling late yesterday afternoon. Storm totals overnight are currently 3 - 5 inches of snow with 0.8 - 1" of SWE.  An additional 12 - 18" of snow and 1.2" of SWE is expected throughout the day into Friday morning.  West winds overnight have been in the teens gusting in the 20 to 30 mph range with moderate winds expected during the day before shifting to the east later this evening with the passing of a back door cold front. 

It's another warm storm with very high liquid-to-snow ratios so far. The rain line last night reached to about 9300'.   Assuming the forecast verifies, expect rapidly increasing avalanche danger throughout the day.  It'll be an active weather pattern with chances of snow in the forecast through at least the middle of next week, which will bring a period of heightened avalanche danger.   

If you're traveling in the mountains below 9000' you may encounter wet snow avalanche concerns.  Avoid steep slopes where you find more than 3 feet of total snow and are punching into wet snow above your boot tops.  At these lower elevations you may encounter wet facets near the ground and could trigger a wet slab avalanche.   

Régions couvertes