Variable snowpack with numerous persistent weak layers. La Nina is ready starting to ramp up starting now. Snowpack is at 77 percent of normal and it is now catch up time. This is the time of year where winter really starts. The fairly shallow pack is currently healing but there is alot of spatial variability with sensitive areas near the ridgetops where the winds formed a slab. The real test is coming this weekend. In the outlook and beyond, increasing temperatures and significant precipitation will be a few the red flags going into the outlook starting Saturday.
Winds from Wednesday's storm transported a bit of snow to the NE aspects. The upper extreme ridgetops and steep exposed terrain have a more dense slab formation that can be expected to be sensitive. Some cracking was observed by other snow goers yesterday in the Selkirks and Cabinets.
New snow since Wednesday of over a foot has formed up and was pretty soft yesterday. Watch for changes in snow density as you go about your travels and look for signs of cohesiveness by observing settling around trees, cracks or any whoomphing. With increasing temperatures and time to settle, the new storm slabs could be reactive until it bonds better to the existing pack.
We have numerous persistent weak layers within the pack. Yesterday in the Cabinets we observed almost 5 feet of snow with a foot of fresh. There was a 5 inch thick ice bridge crust 2 feet down from mid December. We could not find the 3 surface hoar layers that we have been seeing but it is more prominent in some areas and something to watch out for by digging small hand pits or sled cuts. In addition there are some facets from November and early December deeper in the pack that showed some weakness with moderate to hard force. The pack is getting deeper and more bonding is occurring with increased heavy snow on the way. Watch for how these layers get tested with a warmer heavy snow load that will likely be the greatest test thus far this year. We have been lucky to get smaller incremental accumulations with small change to the pack. Saturdays storm will be a big change and a rapid one. Rapid changes are what tests the pack.
Moderate hazard rating using extra caution on steep exposed terrrain in the upper peaks and ridgetops. About 5 feet of snow with some warming temperatures and moderate precipitation leading into a sizeable storm starting Saturday and into Sunday. This will be the storm that tests all of our persistent weak layers in the pack and lays down the brush in the mid and high country. This larger load on the pack will make things pretty sensitive for a few days but will likely help heal things in the long run. Be patient with the new snow and use caution as you travel watching for the five red flags as you go. It is a good practice to let the rapid snowload shake out for a few days before testing the more extreme terrain. See the observations tab on our website for more detailed information in other areas. Thanks Micah for the observations from the Selkirks yesterday.
