Northern New Mexico

New snow will increase the concern for triggering a large persistent slab avalanche. Today is about clueing into changes that are occurring while you're out touring. Pay attention to how much new snow has fallen, what the winds are doing, and look for obvious signs of instability. Shooting cracks and audible whumpfs should be taken very seriously. Our snowpack wasn't giving us much feedback after our last storm so any change in that pattern will be a great indication that buried weak layers are becoming over-stressed and we need to dial back our terrain selection. Keep your head on a swivel today. 

We only managed to pick up about 1 to 2 inches of new snow overnight and we can expect an additional 2 to 3 inches during the day today and another couple this evening. The jet stream drifted farther south than models had indicated which means winds will be light during this event and won't be a major influence on increasing avalanche danger. With that being said, don't rule it out completely. This is a notoriously windy place, so if you see the winds pick up and snow being transported don't disregard that. Look for those areas of wind-affected snow to harbor sensitive soft slabs that might catch you off guard.

The concern over the next 48 hrs however will be incrementally adding weight onto a fragile snowpack. We'll have to keep ourselves focused on changing conditions and signs of instability. We aren't going to get that big dump of snow that produces a natural avalanche cycle while we are sleeping warm in our beds. We are going to slowly add weight and we can expect the avalanche danger to increase accordingly. Don't let a lack of feedback initially get you too complacent, if it's still snowing that means we need to be paying attention. Due to the depth of these weak layers, we're still talking about the concern for large, destructive, and unmanageable avalanches.  

Areas where the snowpack is thinner such as sheltered near and below treeline terrain and/or slopes that have previously avalanched should be especially suspect. These slopes, due to their shallow depth, will be easier for a skier or rider to affect weak layers. Area's where the snowpack is deeper such as wind-exposed slopes near and above treeline will be a bit more stubborn but will produce unsurvivable avalanches if you're able to find the sweet spot. 

Lastly, the weather forecast isn't calling for significant snowfall today but as we all may know by now we've had our fair share of weather forecasts that didn't pan out the way they were supposed to. If we receive more snowfall than forecasted be on the lookout for storm slab development. Our threshold here will be 6 inches. If you are traveling on slopes with 6 inches or more of new snow be mindful, especially in areas where even light winds have gotten to it. These avalanches will be small and soft but paired with a terrain trap can have some consequence to it and as always, we have buried weak layers that small avalanches can step down into. During times of uncertainty and high consequence, we can limit our exposure with our terrain selection. Sticking to terrain no greater than 30 degrees and staying out from underneath large open terrain will help mitigate your exposure to the increasing avalanche danger.