Purcells

Fair - Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather system is uncertain

A strong west to southwesterly flow continues to drive a series of moist systems across the interior regions. The next frontal system will cross the interior on Sunday night and most of Monday resulting in more precipitation and wind. This storm is tracking through the south of the Purcells and the areas around Golden may not see as much precipitation from the first system. The second system is expected to affect the entire region Tuesday overnight. Wednesday is expected to be mainly dry with periods of sun.Sun. Night/Monday: Snowfall 10-15cm (less in the north), freezing level rising to 1300m in the afternoon, ridgetop winds 30-50km/h SW easing in the afternoon.Tuesday: Mostly dry during the day, snowfall overnight 8-12cm, freezing level rising to 1300m in the afternoon, ridgetop winds 25-40km/h SW increasing overnight.Wednesday: Mostly dry, a mix of sun and cloud, afternoon freezing level around 500m, ridgetop winds 40-60km/h W-NW easing in the afternoon.

A widespread natural avalanche cycle has been occurring across the forecast area over the last few days with natural and human-triggered avalanches up to size 3. These avalanches are occurring on all aspects and elevation bands.

Snowfall amounts have varied across the forecast region, but up to 100cm+ of storm snow is settling into a cohesive slab which is now typically 50-80cm thick. This slab is sitting on the weak Feb 9 interface which consists of multiple layers of surface hoar, faceted snow, and/or crusts from the past few weeks of cold clear weather. Reports indicate very easy snowpack tests results and widespread large destructive avalanche activity. Due to the persistent nature of these buried weaknesses, touchy conditions are likely to exist for some time.Strong ridge top winds have created wind slabs on leeward features at treeline and above. These wind slabs are the primary concern for the near future and strong forecast winds over the next few days are expected to add to this problem.For the most part, the mid and lower snowpack are strong and well consolidated. However, weak basal facets are likely to exist in some areas but triggering has now become unlikely.