Bulletin d’avalanche

Northern New Mexico

Taos Avalanche Center
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Danger d’avalanche

Sun
Alpin
2 · Modéré
Limite forestière
2 · Modéré
Sous la limite
2 · Modéré
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Périmé — ce bulletin a expiré 4 years ago. Vous consultez des conditions passées, pas le bulletin en cours.

Points saillants

At upper elevations, moderate to strong winds will continue to drift snow and stiffen the surface into shallow wind slabs. Avoid slopes where you find obvious wind-drifted pillows and smooth surfaces with stiffer snow underfoot.  You can also trigger a persistent slab avalanche on faceted weak layers and depth hoar near the ground at all elevations.  These persistent weak layers are buried under cohesive slabs of varying depths and hardnesses.  Obvious signs of instability like shooting cracks and loud collapses may not be present in travels and give you a false sense of safety.  You are more likely to impact deeper buried weak layers where the overlying slab is thinner. These likely trigger points are typically found on the margins of the slabs, near trees, and rock outcrops. Sticking to wind-sheltered slopes less than 35 degrees without steep slopes above will provide safer skiing and riding options. 

Problèmes avalancheux

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpin
    • Limite forestière
    • Sous la limite forestière
    Probabilité
    Possible
    Taille
    1–2.5

    Deeper down in the snowpack is where you'll find facets and depth hoar.  These persistent weak layers formed during November and early December dry periods can be found on most slopes and are buried under 1 to 1.5 meters of snow from storms earlier in January.  In pits, these weak layers have been showing signs of strengthening as we push further away from the last loading event and have a deeper snowpack.  On most slopes, these weak layers will be difficult to trigger unless you find a "sweet spot" where the slab is thinner.  It may not be the first person on the slope to get it to release, and tracks on a slope are not an indication that it is safe. Taking the time to dig a quick pit in the terrain you plan to play on, to see if this poor snowpack structure of strong over weak is present is a great way to assess if this persistent slab problem exists.  You can also avoid this problem, by sticking to lower-angle slopes without steep slopes above.  

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpin
    • Limite forestière
    • Sous la limite forestière
    Probabilité
    Possible
    Taille
    1–1.5

    Moderate to strong winds picked up overnight and will continue through the day drifting snow and stiffening the surface into shallow wind slabs.  These wind slabs may become more reactive than the last couple of days.  Avoid obvious wind-drifted pillows and smooth surfaces that are stiffer underfoot and may feel hollow.  Watch for shooting cracks on the surface as these are indications you've found unstable snow.  These wind slabs most likely would be small but could sweep you off your feet and take you for a ride, which in exposed terrain could have serious consequences.      

Avalanche Discussion

Moderate to strong W/SW winds picked up last night and will continue through Sunday.  Clouds will increase today as a quick short wave system moves in bringing a chance of flurries this afternoon, but snow totals shouldn't amount to more than a trace to an inch. Unfortunately, it could be a while before we see another significant weather system, with the next storm on Tuesday tracking further south with each of the last model runs.   

The snowpack, however, is finally getting a much-needed break from a very active couple of weeks to begin January.  During this period close to 3 feet of snow fell on top of a shallow and faceted snowpack,  and we had several large natural avalanches and widespread signs of instability with each of the storms that impacted our mountains. Over the last week, faceted weak layers have been slowly healing and strengthening in a deepening snowpack.  As we see a downward trend in avalanche activity the likelihood of triggering an avalanche has been decreasing, but the consequences still remain quite high.  If you were to get a slope to release, it could take with it most of the season's snowpack. 

Our snowpack is finally getting deeper with 1 to 2-meter snowpack depths, which makes it harder to impact weak layers near the ground. But identifying deeper areas from areas where the overlying slab is thinner is tricky if not impossible. Without immediate feedback from the snowpack like collapses, shooting cracks and multiple tracks on a slope this can give you a false sense of security until you hit "sweet spot" and release an avalanche that could be catastrophic. If this much uncertainty is not your cup of tea, you can always stick to lower-angle wind-sheltered terrain that does not have steep slopes overhead.      

 

 

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