Bulletin d’avalanche

Northern New Mexico

Taos Avalanche Center
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Danger d’avalanche

Alpin
3 · Marqué
Limite forestière
3 · Marqué
Sous la limite
3 · Marqué
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Points saillants

Dangerous avalanche conditions exist. You can trigger a large and destructive persistent slab avalanche on northerly and east aspects that propagates wide distances and breaks on or near the ground and able to run well into the flats.  Recent snow has built 1 - 3 foot storm slabs at all elevations. Human triggered persistent slab and storm slab avalanches are likely today.  Any slide you trigger has the potential to injure or bury you.  Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding, and conservative decision-making are essential today. 

 

Problèmes avalancheux

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpin
    • Limite forestière
    • Sous la limite forestière
    Probabilité
    Likely
    Taille
    2–3

    You can trigger large and dangerous persistent slab avalanches on northerly and east aspects. The snowpack has not gotten much of a break with 4 + feet of snow and strong winds over the last 8 days.  Faceted snow and depth hoar near the ground will need more time to adjust to this last significant load. This persistent weak layer is capped by 4 to 6-foot dense slabs creating this strong over weak snowpack structure.

    Immediate feedback like loud audible collapses and shooting cracks may not be present and give you a false sense of security. Avoid likely trigger points where the overlying slab is thinner on margins and near rock outcrops. It's possible to remotely trigger an avalanche from below or an adjacent slope.  Avoid being on or below slopes steeper than 30 degrees today, giving avalanche path runouts wide berths as avalanches may run long distances.  Avalanches may break on or near the ground and will be large enough to injure or bury you and could be unsurvivable.  

    Large Natural avalanche on a north aspect above treeline from earlier in the week during the last big loading event from the Christmas Eve storm.  

  • Storm Slabs

    • Alpin
    • Limite forestière
    • Sous la limite forestière
    Probabilité
    Likely
    Taille
    1–2

    A multi-day storm that has dropped 15 to 20 inches has created storm slabs on most slopes, even in terrain where the persistent slab problem is absent.  Storm slab avalanches will be most likely near and above treeline and wind-exposed terrain but may occur on any steep slope. These slabs could break 1 to 3' deep which is enough to injure or bury you. With an abundance of snow available for transport expect to find stiffer and deeper slabs on the leeward sides of ridgelines and cross-loaded gullies. Pay attention to obvious signs of instability like shooting cracks propagating off your ski tips and avoid slopes that are actively loading.

    Watch for loose snow sluffing in steep terrain that could entrain enough snow to knock you off your feet or push you into a terrain trap and potentially bury you.  

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Avalanche Discussion

Today will bring the return of the sun and a frigid start with temperatures below 0 F. Wind speeds are currently in the single digits out of the NW.  Since December 24th we've picked up 7.2" of snow water equivalent (SWE) and 45 to 60" of snow.  This new snow combined with very strong winds during this period has changed conditions drastically over the last 8 days. It wasn't that long ago we weren't able to even travel. The snowpack has been building complexities as we're just starting to get to know it.  

Visibility has not been great and today we'll get a better idea of the extent of what happened during the storm.  Yesterday's storm picked up intensity around 9 AM as storm slabs were quickly becoming more reactive and propagating wide distances.  Around this time we got a report of a large natural avalanche below treeline on a NE aspect. Early this morning we're getting another report of a very large natural avalanche above treeline on a northerly aspect that had run long distances well into the flats. It appears that we went through peak instability sometime yesterday morning, but with limited visibility and a lack of observations, we should know more today about the extent of the natural avalanche cycle we just went through.      

Below treeline avalanche concerns have been limited to northerly and shady aspects where old snow remained during prolonged periods of high pressure earlier in the season.  With snow piling up from this multi-day storm, steep and wind-exposed terrain will become more problematic with storm slabs. Even a smaller avalanche can have serious consequences with terrain traps and ground hazards. 

Today has accident written all over it, with bluebird powder conditions as our season is just getting started.  Don't get lured into chasing powder in steep terrain, dangerous avalanche conditions exist on most slopes. Wind sheltered low-angle terrain will provide great powder turns today.

Régions couvertes