Stevens Pass

Thursday's weather will be cloudier and cooler than any day we've seen in a while. Challenging traveling on firm snow will be a consideration, so bring appropriate traction equipment. A much anticipated storm will bring a dramatic increase in avalanche danger for Friday and the weekend. 

After a solid overnight freeze, avalanches will be difficult to trigger on Thursday.  That said, it's still a good idea to minimize your exposure to overhead slopes with glide cracks or cornice-like chunks of snow that could fall off rocks or cliffs.

More pertinent, will be firm snow surfaces and challenging travel conditions on a variety of low elevation and sun-exposed slopes. You can expect firm crusts on southeast through southwest aspects. Rough, frozen surfaces can be found in the trees, especially below 4,500ft. Be prepared with ski crampons, crampons, and other traction equipment.

The big story is a storm starting Thursday night. This will bring the most significant change to avalanche (and travel) conditions that we've seen in nearly 3 weeks. We have high confidence that this snow will bury weak layers. What happens once the snow is on the ground is to be determined.

For now, we can track the locations of snow surfaces that could be problematic: A thick layer of near surface facets is widespread on many shaded and northerly slopes. This included shaded east and west aspects, and likely encompases all elevations that hold snow. Surface hoar exists in pockets in shaded meadows, drainages, and deep valleys. Other surfaces include melt forms and crusts on sunny slopes, and textured wind- affected snow at upper elevations. 

On Wednesday, an NWAC forecaster investigated the snow on a steep, south aspect at 5,200ft on Cowboy Ridge. They found moist to wet snow in the top 3 feet of the snowpack. At 12:30p, subsurface crusts were just strong enough to support a person standing, (boot penetration- 25cm) but much of the snowpack was wet and weak. On Sunday, NWAC forecasters in the Stevens zone reported decent skiing on steep southern slopes that softened in the sun and great recycled powder riding on shady terrain. Despite all the recent sun and warm temperatures, little to no avalanches have been reported since January 15th.

If you get out in the mountains, let us know what you see by submitting an observation HERE or via the Avy App.