The overall avalanche danger is MODERATE today along the Manti Skyline.
Human triggered avalanches breaking into weak snow near the ground are still a possibility in the right locations. The most likely spots would be on slopes steeper than 35 degrees that have not avalanched yet and face northwest through east.
Loose sugary faceted snow near the ground remains my biggest concern for avalanche activity still. The snowpack has settled and adjusted and seems pretty quiet right now. However, this type of loose weak snow is notorious for being unpredictable. I am continuing to avoid steep slopes especially that face Northwest through East.
It is quite possible that we may see natural avalanches breaking into the weak faceted snow near the ground during a significant warming period. Last night temperatures stayed above freezing. I don't think that this single night with no refreeze will be enough to cause natural avalanches. In general, the rule of thumb is natural wet avalanches are likely after three consecutive nights with no refreeze. All that said, be aware that the warm temperatures could make those buried persistent weak layers unstable.
Current Conditions: Temperatures remained very warm overnight with most stations hovering in the mid 30s. Southerly winds remain fairly light.
Mountain Weather: We'll see mild temperatures again through today with clouds this morning and some clearing this afternoon. Southerly wind looks like it'll increase a bit during the day. The weather looks on settled through the rest of the week. Best chances for snow are Wednesday and Thursday night into Friday. Between these two impulses, we should see a decent refresher. I'm anticipating 6 to 8 inches of snow by Friday.
