The persistent weak layers are most likely to be triggered from shallow, rocky areas. Do your best to avoid these locations.
The snowpack is thin, the alders are tall and rocks are still hard. Regardless of these facts, good snow quality still exists in Rogers Pass.
Gusty winds and warming temps have built fresh windslabs in exposed areas in the alpine. If triggered these wind slabs could step down to deeper instabilities.
30-60cm of settled snow buries the Dec 23 facet interface. This layer will be a concern in thin rocky areas, on convex rolls, or in areas where the snowpack is unsupported.
The Nov 17 layer, down 60-120cm, consists of facets, a rotting crust, and decomposing surface hoar. Though becoming less likely to trigger, the resulting avalanche would be quite destructive.
No human-triggered avalanches reported within the last few days.
MacDonald Gully 8 produced a sz 1.5 wind slab avalanche on Saturday.
On Thursday, the Macdonald gullies produced several large avalanches during a brief wind spike in the morning, notably gully #6 produced a size 3 slab avalanche.
The top 30cm of snow is settling with warmer temps. Wind-affected snow can be found in the alpine and open areas at treeline. Steeper solar aspects have a thin sun crust that is now buried by 5-10 cm.
The December 23rd facet interface is down ~50cm and appears to be gaining strength, but remains a concern in shallow snowpack areas.
The November 17th facet/crust/surface hoar layer is down ~100cm and has become less reactive in snowpack tests, though when it does fail it is 'sudden' in character.
Sunday will see mainly cloudy skies with up to 5cm of snow accumulation. Ridgetop winds will be 20-35km/hr from the South and the alpine temperature will range from -8 to -3.
5-10cm of snow is forecasted for Monday with a slight drop in temperatures and an increase in winds. Another 5-10cm on Tuesday.
