Use extra caution in wind effected terrain. New wind slab has formed over a variety of surfaces that it will likely not bond well to.
New wind slabs will likely be limited in size but touchy due to the surfaces they are forming on. Avoid features where even a small avalanche could be consequential.
The mid January surface hoar layer is a developing problem that could start to produce more avalanches in the near future. Use extra caution in sheltered terrain at treeline where preserved surface hoar is more likely to exist.
The early January facet layer is now down as deep as 80cm and might require a large load such as a cornice fall or a smaller avalanche in the layers above in order to be triggered. This problem is likely most concerning on high north and east facing terrain.
Saturday night: some light flurries with moderate southwest winds. Low of -4 at 1600m.
Sunday: some light flurries bringing up to 5cm of snow with light winds. High of -6 at 1600m.
Monday: some light flurries with moderate west winds. High of -4 at 1600m.
Tuesday: no new snow expected. Light winds with a high of -16 at 1600m.
There have been no notable avalanches reported in the last few days but we suspect new wind slabs will be touchy but limited in size.
two natural cornice triggered avalanches up to size 3 were observed earlier in the week on southeast aspects at treeline. There have also been several large machine triggered avalanches on persistent weak layers throughout the region at the start of the week.
As the storm continues through Sunday wind slab will form over a variety of surfaces including facets, surface hoar and old wind slab. The new snow will not bond well to these surfaces. In the southern part of the region it is possible to find a rain crust up to 1500m.
Below this we have two persistent weak layers, the first is a surface hoar layer from mid January buried down approximately 30cm. The second is a layer of facets from early January which is now down 50 to 80cm, it has been most reactive where wind slab has formed above it and will now likely require a large load to trigger.
