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Warming temperatures and sunshine will make small, wet snow avalanches possible on steep slopes where you are finding a wet, slushy snowpack. If today's storm arrives ahead of schedule be on the lookout for small, freshly forming wind drifts in terrain exposed to the wind. Generally stable avalanche conditions exist and large avalanches are unlikely.

I've got a Valentine's Day gift for all of you: by the end of the day, there won't just be love in the air...there will be snowflakes! Today marks a shift away from the weather pattern that we've been stuck in for the past 5 weeks. The day will start out mild with a helping of sunshine, eventually cooling as a storm impacts our area. There isn't a single, well-defined avalanche problem to be worrying about today, but there are a few different things to be aware of:

Wet Snow Avalanches: Above-average temperatures and days of endless sunshine brought wet snow avalanches onto the menu in the past 5 days. Temperatures dropped below freezing last night, giving the surface of the snowpack a chance to refreeze. However, it wasn't much below freezing and things are already beginning to slowly warm up as I write this (5 AM). Most areas will see at least a few hours of sunshine and above freezing temperatures this morning. These conditions may be enough to remelt the snow surface and bring wet loose avalanches back to the table. Scott reported seeing a very recent wet loose avalanche yesterday in the Warm Springs drainage near Ketchum (photo here), a sign that we might not be quite over this cycle of activity. You can monitor this problem by paying attention to the snow surface. If it is getting wet and slushy and you can jab your poles or the track of your machine into wet snow underneath it is time to seek out either a colder or a lower angle slope.

Wind Slabs: Today's storm is not forecast to do much until after dark. However, if it arrives early and more intensely than expected, be on the lookout for small wind slabs building in terrain exposed to the wind. Most older wind slabs have had time to bond, but on Friday a skier in the Warm Springs drainage managed to find one that hadn't (photo and details here). Look for cracking and collapsing in wind drifts as an indicator of an unstable slab.

We encourage you to continue to follow your basic safe travel protocols, even during periods of LOW danger: Wear your beacon and carry your rescue gear, make good plans and keep your eyes on your partners. Only expose one member of your party to avalanche hazard at a time and think about the consequences of being caught and carried in the terrain that you are traveling through. It is somewhat counterintuitive, but LOW danger days are a great time to practice these habits as we are more likely to be putting ourselves into real avalanche terrain on these days.

Today's forecast is dedicated to our Valentines... thanks for putting up with us!