West Slopes South

Happy New Year! We'll kick off 2026 with a transition day as we move from warm and sunny toward more active weather. As temperatures slowly drop and clouds increase ahead of the incoming storm, generally safe avalanche conditions should prevail. 

The past week has been unseasonably warm and sunny in the West South zone. But, as many of us do, Mother Nature is going to kick off the new year with some changes. An incoming weather system will make its way from south to north throughout the day, increasing cloud cover ahead of a good shot of precipitation Thursday night. A few showers could even begin during the day, but shouldn't be significant enough to drive much hazard.

That said, there are a few things to keep an eye out for. 

1. If rain falls on dry snow, you could see some small wet slides. This will be more likely on shaded aspects where this week's sun hasn't already destabilized the surface snow.
2. If you’re pushing into higher, rocky, complex terrain, there could be a few isolated wind slabs still lingering in rocky chutes or near ridgelines. 

The real uncertainty surrounds what kind of precipitation will fall once the storm arrives. Snow, rain, or even freezing rain are all in the cards given the inversions in place and the size of our zone.

No matter what falls out of the sky, the snowpack should be well-suited to handle most of it. Throughout the West South, the snowpack is considered strong and well settled. A new surface crust will likely develop on slopes where the sun has moistened the snow over the past few days. Be cautious - it could be slick once it forms, creating a good sliding surface for the incoming snow or a trip and a long fall for a weary traveler. Below the surface, you'll likely find the 12/24 crust down about a foot. While other crusts exist in the snowpack, we don't have many concerns lower down at this time. 

As we turn the page on a somewhat disappointing December, remember that snow depths are still thin for this time of year. Open creeks, random holes, rocks, and bushes continue to make travel challenging.

New year, new you. Maybe it's time to submit an observation.