Abajos

You can still trigger deep and dangerous avalanches on steep W-N-SE aspects and the avalanche danger is MODERATE in these areas. The danger increases with elevation where wind drifted snow has added stress to buried persistent weak layers. Avoid areas where the snowpack is thinner as this is where it is possible to trigger deep and dangerous avalanches. The danger is LOW below treeline, but you can still trigger small avalanches in isolated areas or in extreme terrain. Watch for loose wet activity today as the sun heats up the recent cold snow. This will likely come in the form of some roller balls, pinwheels, or even a few loose snow sluffs. Stay off of and out from under steep slopes when these signs are present.

Sunny, with a high near 35F at 10,000'. South wind around 15-25 mph. Southwest flow overhead will bring an area of low pressure and precipitation to our area this evening/ tomorrow morning. This system looks to have a decent amount of moisture; however, it will be quick-moving, and models suggest about 3-5" of snow, coupled with some blustery south and southwest winds. The flakes begin to fall around midnight. High-pressure returns for the weekend. A change in the pattern will occur next week, as several disturbances are predicted to enter our forecast area.

NWS Weather Forecast.

Snow totals at Buckboard Flat (8924')

Snow totals at Camp Jackson (8858')

Snowpack Discussion

Warm temperatures and time have helped consolidate the snowpack, but weak layers are still present, especially in shady areas at higher elevations. A poor snowpack structure still exists and on slopes facing NW-N-SE a slab 1'-3' thick exists on top of buried, weak, facets. These slabs are becoming harder to trigger but once released they would produce deep and dangerous avalanches. Likely trigger points include shallower areas along slope margins, around sparse trees or rock outcroppings, or on repeat running slide paths.

Steep north-facing terrain is the most likely place you can still trigger a deep, persistent-slab avalanche. This is an aerial photo of a NW aspect of Jackson Ridge taken on 2/23/2021. You can see that snow depth is variable, and winds have drifted snow, creating dangerous slabs over buried weak layers.

On SE aspects like this terrain on Abajo Peak, ridgelines are shallow, while more easterly aspects have been cross-loaded by winds over the last few weeks.

Here is where we are with the snowpack. Camp Jackson is at 66% of normal for this time of year.

Information on outdoor recreation - The State of Utah created this webpage with information about recreating on both state and federal public lands during the current health crisis.

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This forecast is from the U.S. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.