Northern New Mexico

Dangerous avalanche conditions continue to exist as stiff cohesive slabs of snow rest on top of weak and faceted snow below. You can easily trigger avalanches big enough to bury you on persistent weak layers deeper down in the snowpack or on the ground.  Avoid being on or connected to slopes over 30 degrees paying attention to recent natural avalanches on similar slopes and obvious signs of instability like shooting cracks and loud audible collapses. Sticking to lower-angle wind-sheltered terrain without steep slopes above you will provide safer skiing and riding options.    

The stretch of moderate to strong winds we've had over the last week is finally coming to an end, with warmer and calmer weather forecasted today.  Since January 4th, we've seen elevated avalanche danger as snow and wind have formed cohesive slabs on top of a weak faceted snowpack that formed during the dry period of December and early January.  Natural and human-triggered avalanches have been observed almost every day during this time frame at all elevations on west to north through southeast aspects. Avalanche conditions have been very slow to ease as slabs have continued to remain reactive with winds over the last several and weak layers continue to be fragile and widespread.  

The main concern continues to be persistent slab avalanches with avalanches failing on weak faceted snow that formed on the surface or around crusts during the end of December and early January dry period or on depth hoar near the ground. These weak layers are widespread and everywhere across all elevations and most aspects.  What does change in the snowpack structure is the overlying slab on top. 

Below treeline, the slabs have been settling ( 10" over the last week at Poco Wx Station) and stiffening into more cohesive slabs.  Weak layers at these lower elevations are still very easy to impact and in travels, we're still getting collapsing which is becoming more isolated. Conditions are not as hare-trigger as they were a couple of days ago as we push further away from the last loading event, but any avalanche triggered is likely to fail on or near the ground taking with it most of the season's snowpack.  We've dropped the avalanche danger down to moderate at this elevation as we are not seeing natural avalanches, and triggering avalanches has become more stubborn but still possible if you find the right slab/weak layer combination.  

In above treeline terrain, moderate to strong winds over the last week have stripped and scoured some slopes at upper elevations and loaded and pressed other slopes into harder slabs, with breakable wind crusts on others. You may find and be able to trigger shallow stubborn wind slabs on northerly and east aspects above treeline but the bigger concern continues to be triggering a larger persistent slab avalanche.  With thicker and stiffer slabs, it may take finding that "sweet spot" on the margins of the slab or near rock outcroppings where the overlying slab is thinner.  It may not be the first person on the slope to trigger an avalanche and hard slabs can break in unpredictable ways, oftentimes well above you.  Signs of instability like audible collapses and shooting, will not be as evident and give you a false sense of security until it's too late.  Avalanches at upper elevations will be large and may not be survivable.     

Near treeline terrain is a transition zone where conditions seem ripe for triggering a large persistent slab avalanche. Winds over the last several days have continued to load slopes, but slabs are not as deep and stiff as what you'll find at higher elevations.  It's still easy to impact and collapse weak layers with slabs better connected across slopes and terrain features.  Recent large natural avalanches on the east-facing terrain in Long Canyon are a great reminder of the avalanche conditions you may find at this elevation.     

This snowpack is a difficult one to fully trust right now.  We've had natural and human-triggered avalanches for an extended period. Signs of instability like whumpfing and shooting cracks are still present in travels and on most slopes anywhere you dig a pit, it's a poor snowpack structure with concerning results in long column tests. Conditions are slowly easing though. Snow safety teams have seen fewer results from explosive control work over the last couple of days.  We're slowly moving into moderate avalanche danger, with no significant snow expected until potentially the end of next week. The likelihood of triggering an avalanche is lower, but the consequences are still quite high if you were to trigger one. Sticking to lower-angled wind-sheltered terrain without steep slopes above you will provide safer skiing and riding options.