This is the time to stay disciplined and out of avalanche exposure. Choose low angle, and low consequence terrain.
A facet/depth hoar layer down 80-100cm that was buried mid season. This layer has becoming more active on recent avalanches both natural and human triggerred.
15cm of recent storm snow with possibly another 15cm forecast. This might become loose wet on solar aspects when the sun comes out. The avalanche hazard could be higher if more snow falls than forecast.
Thin, shallow areas or heavy triggers are what will set this layer off. Avoid terrain with those characteristics.
Several loose dry size 1-1.5 avalanches on all aspects occurred on Sunday in extreme unskiable terrain.
Several slab(30-40cm thick) avalanches size 1.5-2 occurred on Sunday on East to South aspects. This is likely on the March 12 facet/surface hoar/crust interface.
With more snow forecast, expect to see more avalanches of this nature.
10-20cm of settled storm snow is on the ground with possibly another 15cm on Sunday night; it is likely to be dry on polar aspects and moist on solar aspects in the afternoon, and a crust in the morning. There has not been much wind with this storm but the storm snow is settling rapidly with the warm temperatures and solar radiation. We now have several buried crusts on solar aspects. Take the time to evaluate the bond between the new snow and crusts. A fracture line profile was recently done on a possible skier triggered sz 3 avalanche from a few days ago in the Murray Moraines drainage on a N aspect at 2200m. The failure layer was a layer of facets/depth hoar down 100cm. This layer was producing moderate sudden collapses. Also the propagation on this layer was over 200m. This layer has been noted in snow profiles throughout the region and rockies so be sure to dig down before committing to a feature. The slope that avalanched took out and buried numerous ski lines. Forecasters are still avoiding being on any steeper or large features due to high levels of uncertainty within the snowpack.
Expect 5-15cm of snow Sunday night. Monday's temperature will be between -11c and -6c, along with light winds from the West.
More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.
