Local avalanche danger will likely be determined by the presence of a surface crust. A strong, supportive crust means avalanches will be unlikely. If there is no crust or if it starts to break down with afternoon warming, wet loose avalanches may be possible on steep slopes.
Solar-triggered loose wet avalanches may still be possible on steep slopes where a melt-freeze crust has not formed on the surface or where the surface crust breaks down during the heat of the afternoon.
A ridge of high pressure brings very warm and sunny conditions which are expected to persist until the end of Sunday.
Thursday night: Mainly clear, moderate NW wind easing overnight, freezing levels 2500-3000 m.
Friday: Sunny, light N wind, freezing levels around 3000 m.
Saturday: Sunny, light NW wind, freezing levels around 3000 m.
Sunday: A mix of sun and cloud, moderate SW wind, freezing levels 2500-3000 m.
No new avalanches have been reported recently. Tuesday's transition from snowfall to rain likely initiated small wet loose releases. Larger releases may have occurred in areas that did not see rain over the weekend - mainly at higher elevations. If you are out in the mountains, please let us know what you are seeing.
Looking forward, stability of the snowpack will be tied to the presence or absence of a surface crust. Wet loose avalanches will remain possible in steep terrain where the upper snowpack reaches an isothermal state (wet snow throughout). As a surface crust forms and as free water drains from the upper snowpack, this potential will diminish rapidly.
10-30 mm of rain on Tuesday evening soaked the snow surface on all aspects and elevations. The formation of a surface crust is expected with clear skies Thursday overnight.
Below the surface, 10-60 cm of moist to wet snow and deteriorating crust layers sit above the thick late-January crust. This crust extends to mountain tops on all aspects.
The mid and lower snowpack is composed of more moist to wet snow that is well settled. Shallow snow cover at low elevations leaves many hazards like stumps and creeks exposed at or just below the snow surface.
