Several close calls have occurred during the last several days. Yesterday on Mt. Leidy the second and sixth riders on steep slopes triggered slab avalanches. On Sunday a skier triggered a slab avalanche on a south facing slope near the top of Togwotee Pass. A buried layer of surface hoar one to two feet below the snow surface and a deeply buried layer of weak faceted snow that formed in early December continue to be problem layers. Dense wind slab avalanches and deep persistent slab avalanches could be triggered by skiers or riders. Careful terrain and snowpack analysis is warranted. Most avalanche fatalities occur during periods of moderate or considerable hazard. Avalanches are unlikely below an elevation of 7,500 feet.
Pockets of wind slab formed by west to southwest winds could be triggered by skiers or riders on steep, wind loaded avalanche prone slopes. These slabs could be up to two feet deep.
Dangerous deep slab avalanches continue to be a hazard above an elevation of 7,500 feet. These large slab avalanches could be triggered by the weight of a single person who hits a shallow trigger point but are more likely to be released by larger triggers like a snowmobile. These slabs could propagate long distances, have depths to four feet and are likely to carry severe consequences to anyone involved.
( Discussion is generated from the previous day's afternoon forecast. )Mostly dry and mild weather will continue overnight and into Tuesday morning. The next storm system will begin to bring some snow to the mountains during the day and will last into Wednesday night. Temperatures will drop into the 20s overnight and rise into the upper 20s and 30s during the day. Southwest to west winds will increase to 20 to 40 with gusts to 45 to 60 miles per hour.At the mid and upper elevations (7,500 to 10,500 feet) dense wind slab avalanches one to three feet in depth could be triggered by skiers and riders who venture onto steep avalanche prone slopes. Deep persistent slabs up to five feet in depth also have potential to be triggered by backcountry riders and skiers. The general avalanche hazard is expected to be MODERATE at the mid and upper elevations. Careful terrain and snowpack analysis is still warranted as most avalanche fatalities occur during periods of moderate or considerable hazard. Avalanches are unlikely below an elevation of 7,500 feet.
