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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Dec 11th, 2019–Dec 12th, 2019

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Sea To Sky.

Storm slabs may be reactive to human triggering, especially in wind loaded areas at upper elevations. Watch for signs of instability such as whumphing, cracking and recent avalanches.

Confidence

Moderate - Forecast snowfall amounts are uncertain.

Weather Forecast

WEDNESDAY NIGHT - Snow, 15-20 cm / southwest winds, 30-50 km/h / alpine low temperature near -3 / freezing level 800 m

THURSDAY - Snow, 10-15 cm / southwest winds 30-50 km/h / alpine high temperature near -3 / freezing level 1200 m

FRIDAY - Cloudy with flurries, 5 cm / southwest winds, 10-20 km/h / alpine high temperature near -3 / freezing level 1000 m

SATURDAY - Cloudy with sunny periods and isolated flurries / light southwest winds / alpine high temperature near -5 / freezing level 700 m

Avalanche Summary

Ongoing snowfall could mean as much as 35 cm of new snow by the end of the day on Thursday. This, combined with strong southwest winds, means that storm slabs will likely be forming, and will be becoming more reactive throughout the day.

On Monday and Tuesday, there were no avalanches reported.

Last weekend, their were several natural, explosive and human triggered avalanches up to size 2 reported in the top 30 cm of the snowpack.

Snowpack Summary

15-20 cm of new snow from Wednesday night likely sits on a weak layer of feathery surface hoar in many areas. Another 10-15 cm of snow is expected to fall throughout the day on Thursday, bringing total new snow amounts to 25-35 cm by the end of the day. There is a crust from mid November that is now down approximately 45-100 cm. Recent snowpack tests have shown that the snow above the crust is weak and could produce avalanches. The snowpack is unusually shallow and weak for the Sea to Sky region. Snowpack depths range between 80-200 cm and taper quickly at lower elevations.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.