Avalanche Forecast

Friday night: Cloudy, alpine low -15 C, alpine wind moderate northwest.

Saturday: Scattered cloud, alpine high -7 C, alpine wind moderate northwest, trace of snow possible in the evening.

Sunday: Scattered cloud, alpine high -6 C, alpine wind light northeast.

Monday: Scattered cloud, alpine high -6 C, alpine wind light northwest.

A bigger storm is on the horizon as we enter the New Year.

The spectacularly large and destructive natural avalanche activity observed during the previous storm cycle has largely tapered. But as recently as Thursday, natural size 2.5 persistent slab avalanches were still being reported in large alpine terrain features on both north and south aspects, in neighboring Glacier National Park. Reports of smaller natural and skier triggered activity have been common and include remote triggering of the recently formed wind slab.

Moderate winds over the last couple of days are likely to have blown around some of the 60 to 100 cm from last weekend's big storm, forming soft windslab in alpine lees. Anywhere from 100 to 160 cm of snow is now resting on a widespread layer of large, feathery, surface hoar which we're calling the "December 11th Surface Hoar." This layer was the culprit for the very large and destructive natural avalanche cycle during and after last weekend's big storm. Activity on this interface has largely tapered off, there remains some uncertainty as to how quickly the snowpack is gaining strength.

A combination of surface hoar, crust & facets formed in late November is now over 170 cm deep. This layer is likely trending toward dormancy.

• Avalanche hazard may have improved, but be mindful that deep instabilities are still present.
• Carefully assess open slopes and convex rolls where buried surface hoar may be preserved.
• Avoid convexities, steep unsupported terrain and rocky outcroppings.
• Watch for newly formed and reactive wind slabs as you transition into wind affected terrain.