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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Dec 26th, 2019–Dec 27th, 2019

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Cariboos.

Watch for fresh wind slabs in upper elevation terrain. Natural persistent slab activity has slowed way down, but large avalanches may still be sensitive to human triggering. If you are increasing your exposure to avalanche terrain, do it gradually as you gather information.

Confidence

Moderate - Uncertainty is due to the fact that deep persistent slabs are particularly difficult to forecast.

Weather Forecast

It’s mostly dribs and drabs of snow for the next few days with increased wind in the higher alpine terrain features. A bigger storm is on the horizon as we finish the New Year.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Freezing level at valley bottom, moderate to strong south/southwest wind, potential for 4 to 10 cm by Friday morning.

FRIDAY: Broken cloud cover, freezing level at valley bottom, moderate to strong west/northwest wind, trace of snow possible during the day.

SATURDAY: Broken cloud cover, freezing level at valley bottom, moderate to strong south/southwest wind, trace of snow possible.

SUNDAY: Scattered cloud cover, freezing level at valley bottom, light variable wind, no significant precipitation expected.

Avalanche Summary

No new activity was reported on Monday, Tuesday or Wednesday.

On Sunday, there were reports of numerous natural and explosive triggered avalanches up to size 2.5

Snowpack Summary

The Cariboos have seen up to 70 cm of new snow over the past week.

40-100 cm of snow is now sitting on a widespread layer of feathery surface hoar crystals. There is some uncertainty as to how much strength this interface has gained over the last few days and it should be treated with caution.

A weak layer formed in late November is now buried around 1 m or more below the surface. This interface may present as surface hoar, a crust, facets or a combination, depending on elevation and aspect.

Terrain and Travel

  • Start on smaller terrain features and gather information before committing to bigger terrain.
  • Caution around convexities or sharp changes in terrain.
  • Fresh wind slabs will likely form throughout the day, diligently watch for changing conditions.
  • Avalanche hazard may have improved, but be mindful that deep instabilities are still present.

Problems

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.