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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Nov 30th, 2019–Dec 1st, 2019

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Northwest Coastal.

Caution as you transition into wind exposed terrain. Avalanches are possible in alpine terrain where wind slabs have formed.

Confidence

Low - Uncertainty is due to the timing, track, & intensity of the incoming weather system.

Weather Forecast

SATURDAY NIGHT - Mainly clear with isolated flurries / northwest winds, 20-25 km/h / alpine low temperature near -6

SUNDAY - Mainly cloudy with flurries, Up to 5 cm / northwest winds, 15-20 km/h / alpine high temperature near -4 / freezing level 700 m

MONDAY - Snow, 20-40 cm / southwest winds, 80-100 km/h / alpine high temperature near -1 / freezing level 900 m

TUESDAY - Mainly cloudy with flurries, Up to 5 cm / southwest winds, 30-50 km/h / alpine high temperature near -2 / freezing level 700 m

Avalanche Summary

A few small (size 1) naturally triggered avalanches were reported midweek. The main concern for human triggering is currently in areas where wind has blown surface snow into wind slabs.

Snowpack Summary

Recent winds from the southeast have likely left wind slabs on north and east facing slopes at higher elevations. The snow from last weekend appears to have settled and gained strength, as shown by this MIN report from the Shames area on Wednesday. A total of 30-80 cm of settled snow from last weekend sits above a widespread crust. The snow has likely bonded to this crust, however given the lack of field observations there is still some uncertainty about whether this could be an interface capable of producing large avalanches. The total snowpack depth is around 100 cm at 1200 m, and is still below the threshold for avalanches in many areas below treeline.

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.