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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Feb 17th, 2015–Feb 18th, 2015

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Glacier.

Weather Forecast

High pressure ridge still dominates over our region. Clear skies and dry conditions to persist until Thursday when a weak system approaches the Interior delivering cloud and light snow into Friday.

Snowpack Summary

5-15cm of light snow, wind effected in open areas, overtop the Feb 14 crust above 1700m. Crust was observed to be ~10cm thick to 2200m. The Jan 30 crust layer is down ~1-1.25m which formed a crust to 2200m. Jan 15 surface hoar layer is down ~1-1.5m. The mid and lower snowpack is well settled. Nov 9 basal crust layer still present in the alpine.

Avalanche Summary

2 solar induced avalanches yesterday to size 2.5 within the highway corridor. From Feb 14, 2 impressive deep slab avalanches, one a size 3.5, running on glacier ice from the slope between Clark peak and Mt Swanzy, North aspect visible from Loop Brook, and in the Asulkan Valley, East aspect, size 3.0 from Mt Pollux running on the ground/Nov 9 crust.

Confidence

Due to the number and quality of field observations

Problems

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.

Cornices

Cornice Fall is the release of an overhanging mass of snow that forms as the wind moves snow over a sharp terrain feature, such as a ridge, and deposits snow on the downwind (leeward) side. Cornices range in size from small wind drifts of soft snow to large overhangs of hard snow that are 30 feet (10 meters) or taller. They can break off the terrain suddenly and pull back onto the ridge top and catch people by surprise even on the flat ground above the slope. Even small cornices can have enough mass to be destructive and deadly. Cornice Fall can entrain loose surface snow or trigger slab avalanches.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.