Avalanche Forecast

Poor - Due to the number of field observations

An Arctic high pressure system dominates the weather pattern for the weekend. Cold and dry is the theme for the next few days.Saturday: Sunny, treeline temperature around -20, light-moderate NE alpine windsSunday: Sunny, treeline temperature around -25, light NW alpine windsMonday: A mix of sun and cloud, treeline temperature around -20, light W alpine winds

We haven't had any new reports since last weekend. If you have any observations, please send them to [email protected]. Recent observations from the Rogers Pass area where the conditions are expected to be similar include widespread natural activity up to size 3.5 on Thursday.

The storm produced a slab up to 1 m thick which sits on the mid-November weak layer (facets, surface hoar, and/or a sun crust on steep southerly slopes). 20-30cm below this layer is a thick rain crust with weak facets on top. Snowpack data from the Cariboo region is very limited at the moment but I expect these layers are reacting similarly to the North Selkirk/Monashees because the formation conditions were generally the same. In the Rogers Pass area, the storm slab is poorly bonded to the mid-November layer and snowpack tests suggest it can be triggered easily with wide propagations possible. In some snowpack tests, the deeper crust/facet layer was also failing and it is possible that avalanches may step down to this lower layer.Recent strong and variable winds have probably created dense wind slabs in exposed terrain and resulted in variable snow distribution in the alpine. At lower elevations, expect travel to be difficult and potentially hazardous as many early season hazards are exposed or lightly buried (stumps, logs, rocks, open creeks, etc).