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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Mar 3rd, 2016–Mar 4th, 2016

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Glacier.

It's getting deep out there, but as the storm snow settles into a slab expect it to get touchier. Be especially cautious where the new snow overlies a crust, if triggered avalanches will run far and fast on that bed surface.

Weather Forecast

Unsettled weather will continue for the outlook. Today and tomorrow expect scattered flurries, with 5-10cm a day, freezing levels rising up to ~1600m, and light but gusty SW winds. Saturday another significant pulse will bring up to 20cm of snow with strong winds and freezing levels rising to ~1800m.

Snowpack Summary

Incremental precipitation has brought ~50cm of snow over the past 4 days. Sustained moderate S'ly winds will have further loaded lees and formed soft slabs. The storm snow has buried Feb 27 layer, which is a variable crust on SE-W aspects, widespread surface hoar/stellars on shaded aspects, and in some areas a combination of both.

Avalanche Summary

Numerous size 2-2.5 avalanches from steep avalanche paths with start zones that are loaded by S'ly winds were observed yesterday. A few small avalanches on S'ly aspects were likely triggered by the warming temps causing trees to drop "tree-bombs". In the region loose and slab avalanches have been easily triggered by people, including some remotely.

Confidence

Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather system is uncertain

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.