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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Mar 16th, 2015–Mar 17th, 2015

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Glacier.

Watch for and avoid wind loaded areas on all aspects. Expect these areas to be easy to trigger especially when the sun comes out.

Weather Forecast

Sunshine is expected for the next two days with light variable winds at mountain top and freezing levels rising from valley bottom to 1900m.  On Tuesday evening another weak front will pass through bring small amounts of precipitation on Wednesday.  A strong front is expected to arrive by the weekend with the potential for a lot of moisture.

Snowpack Summary

At treeline and above, pockets of winds slab up to 30cm thick formed by strong to extreme winds on Saturday night overlie a combination of crusts, settling snow and the Feb19th surface hoar down 45cm. Yesterday the new wind slab was failing with skier traffic. Below 1800m the surface is a crust formed by 10mm of rain on Saturday.

Avalanche Summary

Yesterday skiers reported triggering a Sz 2.5 avalanche in the Ursus area 25cm deep, 150-200m wide. Lots of whumphing was observed at TL. Natural moist/wet and slab avalanches to Sz 3.0 occured on Saturday. Two days ago on Dome Glacier, a size 2.0 wind slab was triggered by the 5th skier on the slope, running 130m to the bench below the headwall.

Confidence

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.