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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Dec 2nd, 2018–Dec 3rd, 2018

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Cariboos.

There is a lot of uncertainty with the reactivity of the buried surface hoar layer down 40-80 cm. Human triggered avalanches are more likely at treeline and sheltered locations in the alpine where this weak layer may exist. New Forecaster blog HERE.

Confidence

Low - Due to the number of field observations

Weather Forecast

Overnight SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy / Alpine Low -14 / Light, northwest wind / Freezing level valley bottom.MONDAY: Mix of sun and cloud / Alpine high -10 / Light, northwest wind / Freezing level valley bottom.TUESDAY: Mix of sun and cloud / Alpine high -12 / Moderate, northwest wind / Freezing valley bottom.WEDNESDAY: Sunny / Alpine high -12 / Light, northwest wind / Freezing level valley bottom.

Avalanche Summary

No avalanches were reported in this region on Saturday. However, we currently have very few observations from within this region. Please post your observations to the Mountain Information Network. (MIN)

Snowpack Summary

There may be some lingering wind slaps in exposed, alpine terrain, but the primary concern in the snowpack is a weak layer of surface hoar (feathery crystals) and/or sun crust depending on the aspect of the terrain. This layer is down 30-70 cm and has been described as 'spotty' with regards to its distribution. It is most pronounced at treeline, but may be found in sheltered, north facing alpine areas.At the base of the snowpack is a crust that formed in late October. There have been no reports of reactivity on this layer; however, this layer may be reactive to human triggers in isolated locations such as steep, rocky terrain, with a shallow snowpack. Small avalanches may step-down to this crust resulting in large, destructive avalanchesSnowpack depths decrease dramatically with elevation where rocks, stumps, and open creeks remain significant hazards.We currently have very limited snowpack observations within this region, so it is critical to supplement this information with your own observations.Check out our latest FORECASTER BLOG for more insight into the uncertainty we have with the surface hoar layer in the southern Cariboos.

Problems

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.