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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Mar 23rd, 2015–Mar 24th, 2015

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Northwest Coastal.

Watch for fresh wind slabs in the alpine.

Confidence

Fair - Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather system is uncertain on Wednesday

Weather Forecast

Tuesday:  Trace amount of snow.  Freezing level rising to around 1300m.  Winds light S/SW at all elevations.Wednesday:  5 to 30cm of new snow.  Strong S winds at treeline, Strong to extreme SW winds at ridgetop.  Freezing level starting at 500m, rising to 1700m in the afternoon.Thursday:  Scattered flurries.  Moderate SW winds at treeline, strong SW winds at ridgetop.  Freezing level holding at 1500m.

Avalanche Summary

On Saturday, a few isolated size 1 wind slabs were skier triggered in the north of the region.  On Sunday cornice fall to size 2 was observed.

Snowpack Summary

In high elevation lee terrain you may find smaller soft wind slabs which formed in response to recent southwest winds and light snowfall. These wind slabs overlie a variety of surfaces which include older wind slabs or melt-freeze crusts. On sun-exposed slopes and at lower elevations, the snowpack is likely in a spring melt-freeze cycle.Up to a meter below the surface you may find a hard crust which co-exists with facets. This condition seems more specific to the north of the region. Although reports suggest this layer has gained significant strength, I'd be wary of the possibility of isolated large avalanches on steep, unsupported slopes, especially if temperatures increase, or if solar radiation is strong. The mid-pack is generally well-settled and strong. At the base of the snowpack, weak facets may be found, particularly on shallow alpine slopes in the north of the region. Cornices are large and potentially fragile.

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.