Avalanche forecast

Northwest Coastal

Feb 15, 2017Avalanche Canada
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Archived · expired 10 years ago

Avalanche danger

Wed
Thu
Alpine
4 · High
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
2 · Moderate

Highlights

The effect of recent warming is uncertain, and buried weak layers exist in the snowpack. Conservative terrain selection remains critical.

Avalanche problems

  • Storm Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely - Very Likely
    Size
    2–3
    Fresh storm slabs continued to build on Tuesday. Expect increased reactivity in higher elevation wind-exposed terrain. New snow will also add stress to recently buried surface hoar which appears most reactive around treeline.
  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible - Likely
    Size
    1–2
    Rain and moist snow accumulating at lower elevations will promote loose wet avalanches over the course of the storm, especially in steep terrain.

Confidence

Moderate - Intensity of incoming weather systems is uncertain on Wednesday

Weather Forecast

Wednesday: 5-15cm of new snow / Strong southwest winds / Freezing level at about 1100mThursday: 4-8cm / Light and variable winds / Freezing level at about 1100mFriday: Light flurries / Light and variable winds / Freezing level at about 800m

Avalanche Summary

Over the past few days a natural avalanche cycle up to size 3 occurred in response to heavy snow and wind. The peak of the natural avalanche activity occurred a few days ago; however, human triggered slab avalanches to size 1.5 were observed failing on recently buried surface hoar as recently as Monday. Recent naturally triggered wind slabs were also observed.Ongoing storm slab activity is expected in response to new snow and wind on Tuesday and Wednesday. New snow will also add stress and destructive potential to deeper weak layers. Loose wet avalanches are expected to continue at lower elevations where precipitation falls as rain.

Snowpack Summary

Anywhere from 40-80 cm of recent snowfall has fallen. Precipitation has been falling as wet snow or rain at lower elevations. The new snow overlies a variety of old surfaces which include wind slabs, facets, sun crusts on steep solar aspects and well-developed surface hoar in sheltered locations. Deeper in the snowpack, the mid-January surface hoar/facet layer is now down roughly 80-120 cm. Recent observations suggest the layer has generally stabilized but isolated weaknesses may still exist, mainly where buried surface hoar is still intact. Below this layer, the snowpack is generally strong and well settled. The exceptions are areas around Bear Pass and Ningunsaw where basal facets remain an ongoing concern, especially in shallow snowpack areas.

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