Avalanche forecast

Aoraki/Mt Cook

New Zealand Avalanche Advisory
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Avalanche danger

High Alpine · above 2,000 m
3 · Considerable
Alpine · 1,500 m–2,000 m
3 · Considerable
Sub Alpine · below 1,500 m
2 · Moderate
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Highlights

Reactive storm and windslabs are likely to be encountered today.

New snow will need time to settle and bond-keep plans conservative if you hope to head out this weekend.

Avalanche problems

  • Storm Slabs

    • All elevations
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    2

    An estimated 100cm of new snow has fallen about the Divide, with around 40cm to the east as of Saturday morning. Winds were strong to gale NW but eased back over Friday, and have turned much colder southerly. Expect reactive wind and storm slab conditions on many slopes above 1600m. A change to very cold southerly winds will shift loading onto northerly aspects. The new snow has landed on a variety of snow surfaces; from crust to old stiff windslab and shallow powder in sheltered areas.

  • Loose Dry

    • All elevations
    Likelihood
    Very Likely
    Size
    1.5

    Loose dry avalanching is very likely. Any hint of sun on Saturday morning will prompt spontaneous loose dry avalanching out of steep terrain. This may transition to loose wet on northern aspects if the day warms up enough.

Recent Avalanche Activity

A natural avalanche cycle may have taken place about the divide, but cloud is hampering observation.

Current Snowpack Conditions

Around 100cm of new snow is estimated to have fallen about the Divide since late Thursday, with 50cm at Mueller hut (1800m elevation), and around 60cm in the Liebig range. Winds were strong or gale NW initially but eased and turned much colder southerly. Snow is likely as low as valley floor by Saturday morning before it starts to clear out. Widespread storm snow and windslab instabilities should be anticipated. This new snow overlies snowfall from earlier in last week. This was extensively distributed by gale NW and SW winds. Below around 1800m the older snowpack was capped with a hard rain crust. Faceting has been observed in shallow snowpack areas in the Malte Brun range as well as a buried graupel layer that appears un-reactive to snowpack tests. The lower snowpack appears to be well bonded, but we are continuing to monitor crust facet laminates in the lower pack in the eastern part of the forecast area.

Mountain Weather

Forecast

Rain easing to showers in the morning, falling as snow to 800 metres, then clearing to fine in the afternoon.

Wind at 1000 metres

Light, southerly 30 km/h developing for a time in the morning.

Wind at 2000 metres

Light, southwesterly 30 km/h developing for a time in the morning.

Wind at 3000 metres

Light, southwesterly 35 km/h developing in the morning.

Freezing level

1200 metres, lowering to 800 metres before dawn, then to 600 metres for a time in the afternoon and evening.

Sliding Danger

Exposed areas could be firm, while lower elevation crusts will be refreezing after rain. Crampons and ice axe may be useful. Firm crusts may be hidden under new snow.

Forecast Confidence

Moderate

  • We are uncertain due to a limited number of field observations.

New Zealand Avalanche Advisory (NZ Mountain Safety Council)

Regions covered