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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Dec 30th, 2014–Dec 31st, 2014

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Olympics.

Storm slab instabilities should have settled by Wednesday, especially with warmer temperatures. Recent N-NE winds likely have loaded southerly aspects, especially near ridges, so make sure to evaluate wind loaded terrain. Moderate avalanche danger means human triggered avalanches are possible! 

Detailed Forecast

Wednesday should continue to be mostly sunny with light winds. Temperatures should warm. The main avalanche problem should be new or lingering storm slab formed over the weekend or wind slabs formed through Tuesday. More recent northerly winds likely redistributed snow on more southerly aspects above and near treeline. With the recent low density snowfall, sheltered terrain may present a loose dry avalanche problem on steeper slopes near terrain traps. 

 

 

 

Snowpack Discussion

The Olympics have finally received enough snow to warrant avalanche forecasts for the season. NWAC observer Tyler Reid confirmed on Friday there is now sufficient snow to produce avalanches. Here is a short video from Tyler at Hurricane Ridge on Friday:

A storm system over the weekend only deposited about 6 inches at Hurricane Ridge through Sunday morning. Persistent snow showers Sunday and Sunday night deposited at least another 6 inches of low density snow.  Pro-observer Tyler Reid found touchy storm slab remaining on all aspects Monday at Hurricane Ridge.  Also, moderate westerly winds became northerly Sunday night through Tuesday... likely transporting and forming areas of shallow and new wind slab, mainly on more southerly aspects.    

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.