Avalanche Forecast

A break between systems is expected during the daylight hours Sunday. This should give time for any recent shallow storm slab or wet new snow to settle and possibly refreeze to form new surface crust layers. This should allow for a slightly decreasing danger at higher elevations where more recent snow may have accumulated. Watch for wind transported new snow on some higher elevation lee slopes, mainly N-E facing.

The snowpack below treeline should continue to drain, but small wet loose avalanches will still be possible on steeper slopes below treeline. 

Do note as a result of the unseasonably low snowpack, especially at lower elevations, numerous terrain hazards such as open creeks, partially covered rocks and vegetation are widespread.  

Yet one more cranked facet of warm and wet weather over the past three days has put another soaking into the meager snowpack that remains. I will not mention the amounts of greatest recent rainfall, nor where it fell, but it may have been near where the record annual snowfall occurred! However, there has been some cooling Saturday along with more precipitation and wet snowfall above about 4000 feet in the north and 5000 feet in the central and south. Reports Saturday afternoon indicate about 2 to 6 inches of wet snow has accumulated above these mentioned elevations.

The wet snow overlies previous rain soaked snow and there was no strong distinctive bed surface. Very little in the way of avalanche activity was reported other than a few small purposefully triggered slides by the Crystal Patrol, testing the 4 inches of wet snow in the upper mountain. There was just beginning to be enough accumulation to initiate isolated slides that behaved more like wet snow avalanches rather than slab releases. 

The Mt Baker patrol Saturday, tested the about 2 feet of unsupported and saturated snow overlying rock bed surface with 50 lb explosive charges, with no results. Some slopes now have glide cracks opening, more typical of late spring. 

Observer Tom C. was in the Rainy Pass area near Stevens on Thursday. With a transition to rain in the late morning, Tom observed natural small wet loose and wet slabs releasing on steeper slopes below treeline involving the most recent snow over a rain crust. Wet loose involving the most recent snow were also ski cut by professional patrollers at Crystal and Alpental Thursday.  By Friday, no significant wet loose slides were observed below treeline by professional patrols across the west slopes.  Dallas Glass in the Skyline area of Stevens on Friday found above 5000 feet (approaching near treeline), there was enough recent storm snow for more significant natural or skier triggered wet snow avalanches and observed pinwheeling of the surface snow.     

Small wet loose, Rainy Creek. 2-5-15 by T. Curtis

The mid and lower snowpack west of the crest should consist of layers of stable consolidated rounded grains or melt forms and crusts from multiple warm periods this winter.